Open Lending Corporation

NasdaqGM:LPRO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$738.8m

Open Lending Valuation

Is LPRO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LPRO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LPRO ($6.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($11.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LPRO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LPRO?

Key metric: As LPRO is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LPRO. This is calculated by dividing LPRO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LPRO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio7.8x
SalesUS$95.89m
Market CapUS$738.78m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LPRO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LPRO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.4x
VALU Value Line
13.1xn/aUS$474.8m
OTCM OTC Markets Group
6.2x5.4%US$626.2m
DFIN Donnelley Financial Solutions
2.2x3.5%US$1.7b
MKTW MarketWise
0.06x-3.5%US$179.0m
LPRO Open Lending
7.8x16.6%US$738.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LPRO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (5.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LPRO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

24 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SNEX StoneX Group
0.03xn/aUS$3.09b
OPY Oppenheimer Holdings
0.5xn/aUS$620.50m
BKKT Bakkt Holdings
0.1x-150.0%US$398.74m
MKTW MarketWise
0.06x-3.5%US$179.03m
LPRO 7.8xIndustry Avg. 3.2xNo. of Companies24PS03.26.49.612.816+
24 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LPRO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (3.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LPRO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LPRO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio7.8x
Fair PS Ratio2.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LPRO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LPRO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.23
US$7.25
+16.4%
19.2%US$10.00US$5.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$5.84
US$7.13
+22.0%
20.4%US$10.00US$5.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$5.91
US$7.13
+20.6%
20.4%US$10.00US$5.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$5.76
US$7.13
+23.7%
20.4%US$10.00US$5.00n/a8
Aug ’25US$5.89
US$7.75
+31.6%
21.2%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$5.56
US$7.67
+37.9%
20.4%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$6.47
US$7.67
+18.5%
20.4%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
May ’25US$5.13
US$8.11
+58.1%
15.9%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$5.96
US$8.11
+36.1%
15.9%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$7.05
US$8.17
+15.8%
15.3%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$7.23
US$7.55
+4.4%
25.9%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$8.51
US$7.35
-13.6%
25.8%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$6.60
US$7.35
+11.4%
25.8%US$10.00US$4.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$5.92
US$11.10
+87.5%
32.1%US$20.00US$6.00US$5.8410
Oct ’24US$7.32
US$11.50
+57.1%
30.9%US$20.00US$6.00US$5.9110
Sep ’24US$8.27
US$11.50
+39.1%
30.9%US$20.00US$6.00US$5.7610
Aug ’24US$11.23
US$11.60
+3.3%
31.6%US$20.00US$6.00US$5.8910
Jul ’24US$10.51
US$11.00
+4.7%
32.8%US$20.00US$6.00US$5.5610
Jun ’24US$10.37
US$11.00
+6.1%
32.8%US$20.00US$6.00US$6.4710
May ’24US$6.97
US$10.10
+44.9%
37.7%US$20.00US$5.00US$5.1310
Apr ’24US$7.04
US$10.10
+43.5%
37.7%US$20.00US$5.00US$5.9610
Mar ’24US$6.92
US$10.10
+46.0%
37.7%US$20.00US$5.00US$7.0510
Feb ’24US$8.77
US$12.45
+42.0%
53.1%US$30.00US$5.50US$7.2310
Jan ’24US$6.75
US$12.65
+87.4%
51.4%US$30.00US$5.50US$8.5110
Dec ’23US$7.29
US$12.65
+73.5%
51.4%US$30.00US$5.50US$6.6010
Nov ’23US$7.15
US$15.35
+114.7%
40.5%US$30.00US$5.50US$5.9210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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