Hamilton Lane Incorporated Just Beat EPS By 8.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) defied analyst predictions to release its yearly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$713m arriving 4.2% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$5.41, 8.2% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Hamilton Lane's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$717.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 13% to US$4.59 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$696.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.24 in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Hamilton Lane after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a substantial drop in per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$154, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hamilton Lane analyst has a price target of US$162 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$139. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Hamilton Lane is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Hamilton Lane's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hamilton Lane.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$154, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hamilton Lane going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Hamilton Lane's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.