Earnings Beat: Hamilton Lane Incorporated Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 8.4% to hit US$176m. Hamilton Lane also reported a statutory profit of US$1.28, which was an impressive 39% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hamilton Lane's five analysts is for revenues of US$738.6m in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$4.90, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$701.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.33 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Hamilton Lane's future following the latest results, with a nice gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$160, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Hamilton Lane analyst has a price target of US$169 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$149. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Hamilton Lane is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Hamilton Lane's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hamilton Lane is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Hamilton Lane following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hamilton Lane analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Hamilton Lane's balance sheet, and whether we think Hamilton Lane is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.