Why Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Is Up 15.5% After Record Q3 Results and Buyback Expansion

• Encore Capital Group recently reported third-quarter 2025 results well above analyst expectations, including a 25.4% increase in revenue, record U.S. collections, and a substantial increase to its share repurchase authorization, boosting the total program to US$600 million.
• This combination of strong financial performance, higher collections, and enhanced capital return initiatives underscores Encore Capital Group’s ongoing ability to generate cash and reaffirm its commitment to shareholder returns amid favorable industry trends.
• We’ll now explore how Encore’s expanded share buyback program could influence the company’s investment narrative and long-term earnings outlook.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 32 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

Encore Capital Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Encore Capital Group, you need to believe in the company’s ability to sustain strong U.S. collection results and capitalize on the growing supply of non-performing loans, despite its reliance on favorable credit market conditions. The latest surge in buyback authorization and robust third-quarter financials supports the primary short-term catalyst: record U.S. collections and high portfolio purchasing activity. However, these developments do not eliminate the critical risk that regulatory tightening or improved consumer payment behavior could sharply reduce future loan supply and growth opportunities.

Among Encore’s recent announcements, the increase of its share repurchase program to US$600 million on November 5, 2025, stands out for its potential impact on both capital allocation and market perception. This move comes on the heels of quarterly results that exceeded expectations and signal management’s ongoing focus on capital returns to shareholders, reinforcing the earnings catalyst provided by strong operational performance and portfolio purchase growth.

By contrast, investors should be aware that Encore’s heavy reliance on U.S. credit conditions means that if regulatory policies shift or consumer delinquencies decline…

Read the full narrative on Encore Capital Group (it's free!)

Encore Capital Group's outlook anticipates $2.1 billion in revenue and $838.0 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on an expected annual revenue growth rate of 11.8% and an increase in earnings of $927.1 million from the current level of -$89.1 million.

Uncover how Encore Capital Group's forecasts yield a $60.25 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members offered 2 fair value estimates for Encore Capital Group, ranging widely from US$60.25 to US$120.38 per share. This diversity of views stands alongside current optimism around strong U.S. collections, inviting you to compare these insights and form your own outlook.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Encore Capital Group - why the stock might be worth just $60.25!

Build Your Own Encore Capital Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Encore Capital Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Encore Capital Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Encore Capital Group's overall financial health at a glance.

Ready For A Different Approach?

Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:

• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• We've found 17 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
• The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com