Are Coinbase Shares Running Too Hot After White House 401k Crypto Move in 2025?

So, you are weighing what to do with your Coinbase Global shares, or maybe you are on the sidelines wondering if now is the time to jump in. You are not alone. Over the last year, Coinbase's stock price has caught the attention of just about every investor in the crypto space, posting a staggering 122.4% gain. Its momentum has hardly let up in 2025, with a 47.7% jump year-to-date and returns of 21.6% in just the past week. In fact, over three years, Coinbase has delivered more than 467 percent. That is definitely not your typical ride in today's market!

These big moves are not happening in a vacuum. As headlines break about the White House opening the door for crypto exposure in 401(k) plans, market sentiment swings between excitement and caution. News of an executive order to broaden retirement market access to cryptocurrencies has added an intriguing layer of both growth potential and risk. This policy shift could invite a fresh stream of capital to platforms like Coinbase, but it also means volatility and regulatory uncertainty are here to stay.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are torn. BofA recently nudged its price target for Coinbase down to $369, echoing the market’s tug-of-war between optimism and anxiety. Mergers and acquisitions, like Coinbase's talks with India's CoinDCX, remind us that scale and global expansion are very much on the agenda, even after weathering high-profile cybersecurity incidents.

But when it comes to actual value, things get interesting. Based on six key valuation checks, Coinbase scores a 0, meaning it is not considered undervalued by these traditional yardsticks. In the next section, we will break down these valuation methods. Then, stick with me for an even smarter approach to understanding what Coinbase might really be worth in today’s wild market.

Coinbase Global scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Coinbase Global Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model evaluates a company's ability to generate returns above its cost of equity, focusing on the efficiency with which it reinvests profits and grows shareholder value. It is especially useful for financial and capital market firms like Coinbase Global, where return on invested capital and its sustainability drive long-term performance.

For Coinbase Global, the model starts with a Book Value of $47.17 per share and a projected Stable Book Value of $58.96 per share, derived from future analyst estimates. The stable Earnings Per Share (EPS), based on a weighted average from seven analysts, stands at $9.15. The company’s cost of equity is $4.83 per share. Critically, this leaves an Excess Return of $4.31 per share, with Coinbase’s long-term Average Return on Equity at an impressive 15.52%.

Despite these strong return metrics, when the model calculates the figures, it arrives at an intrinsic value of $143.22 per share. Compared to Coinbase’s current market price, this implies the stock is approximately 165.3% overvalued by this measure. In other words, the market appears to be pricing in far more optimism than the company’s excess returns can justify, at least for now.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Coinbase Global.

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Coinbase Global may be overvalued by 165.3%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Coinbase Global Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Coinbase Global, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a time-tested way to gauge whether shares are expensive or cheap. This measure tells investors how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings, giving a snapshot of market expectations about growth and risk. Generally, in fast-growing or less risky companies, a higher PE multiple is justified, while mature or riskier businesses trade at lower PEs.

Currently, Coinbase trades at a PE ratio of 34.1x. This is higher than the capital markets industry average of 27.1x and above the peer average of 32.7x. This suggests the market is pricing in both superior growth prospects and increased confidence in Coinbase's profitability. However, simple benchmarks can be misleading. Two companies in the same industry may have vastly different risks, margins, or growth rates.

This is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in. Instead of just matching Coinbase to industry or peers, the Fair Ratio algorithm considers a broader set of inputs: company-specific growth rates, profit margins, risk factors, market cap, and sector dynamics. For Coinbase, the Fair PE Ratio stands at 20.0x. After accounting for its unique profile, the current PE looks elevated.

Since Coinbase's actual PE (34.1x) sits significantly above its Fair Ratio (20.0x), the shares appear overvalued on this basis.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Coinbase Global Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even smarter way to understand valuation, and that is through Narratives. A Narrative is a simple yet powerful way to put your perspective and reasoning behind a company's numbers, connecting your expectations about Coinbase Global’s future growth, profit margins, and risks to a fair value estimate.

Instead of only looking at ratios or past performance, Narratives let you articulate your story for the company, such as how new regulations, partnerships, or products might reshape its future. You can then see how your financial expectations stack up against current prices. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives make expressing and visualizing your thesis easy. They also update whenever important news or earnings are announced, so your decision-making framework stays relevant.

Narratives help investors compare their calculated Fair Value with the live market price, making it much clearer when to consider buying or selling. For example, on Coinbase Global, some investors’ Narratives expect blockchain tokenization and partnerships to justify a price over $500, while others focus on cyber risks and earnings declines, putting fair value near $185. You have the freedom to base your investment on your own beliefs, not just consensus targets.

Do you think there's more to the story for Coinbase Global? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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