Alerus Financial Corporation

NasdaqCM:ALRS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$431.9m

Alerus Financial Valuation

Is ALRS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALRS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALRS ($21.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALRS is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALRS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ALRS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALRS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALRS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.1x
NEWT NewtekOne
6.5x10.1%US$277.9m
JXN Jackson Financial
5.7x5.4%US$5.1b
BXLC Bexil
11.3xn/aUS$23.1m
VOYA Voya Financial
12.8x11.7%US$7.5b
ALRS Alerus Financial
37.1x47.0%US$431.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALRS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.1x) compared to the peer average (9.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALRS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-7.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-7.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALRS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.1x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (15.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALRS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALRS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio37.1x
Fair PE Ratio20.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALRS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALRS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$21.83
US$23.00
+5.4%
4.3%US$24.00US$22.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$21.70
US$24.00
+10.6%
6.8%US$26.00US$22.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$23.28
US$24.00
+3.1%
6.8%US$26.00US$22.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$22.39
US$21.00
-6.2%
13.5%US$23.00US$17.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$18.74
US$18.00
-3.9%
4.5%US$19.00US$17.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$17.40
US$18.38
+5.6%
5.2%US$19.50US$17.00n/a4
Oct ’24US$18.18
US$19.63
+7.9%
5.5%US$21.00US$18.00n/a4
Sep ’24US$20.15
US$20.00
-0.7%
6.8%US$21.50US$18.00n/a4
Aug ’24US$19.93
US$20.00
+0.4%
6.8%US$21.50US$18.00n/a4
Jul ’24US$17.98
US$18.75
+4.3%
6.9%US$20.00US$17.00n/a4
Jun ’24US$16.72
US$16.75
+0.2%
5.0%US$18.00US$16.00n/a4
May ’24US$14.34
US$16.75
+16.8%
5.0%US$18.00US$16.00n/a4
Apr ’24US$16.05
US$19.00
+18.4%
7.4%US$21.00US$18.00n/a3
Mar ’24US$19.88
US$21.33
+7.3%
2.2%US$22.00US$21.00US$21.703
Feb ’24US$20.08
US$21.33
+6.2%
2.2%US$22.00US$21.00US$23.283
Jan ’24US$23.35
US$25.00
+7.1%
6.5%US$27.00US$23.00US$22.393
Dec ’23US$23.51
US$25.00
+6.3%
6.5%US$27.00US$23.00US$18.743
Nov ’23US$22.00
US$25.00
+13.6%
6.5%US$27.00US$23.00US$17.403
Oct ’23US$22.10
US$25.33
+14.6%
7.4%US$28.00US$24.00US$18.183
Sep ’23US$23.56
US$26.67
+13.2%
7.1%US$28.00US$24.00US$20.153
Aug ’23US$24.88
US$26.67
+7.2%
7.1%US$28.00US$24.00US$19.933
Jul ’23US$23.70
US$26.67
+12.5%
1.8%US$27.00US$26.00US$17.983
Jun ’23US$25.24
US$29.50
+16.9%
3.7%US$31.00US$28.50US$16.723
May ’23US$25.55
US$29.75
+16.4%
4.2%US$31.00US$28.50US$14.342
Apr ’23US$27.45
US$31.50
+14.8%
1.6%US$32.00US$31.00US$16.052
Mar ’23US$28.55
US$32.50
+13.8%
1.5%US$33.00US$32.00US$19.882

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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