AGNC Investment Corp.

NasdaqGS:AGNC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.4b

AGNC Investment Valuation

Is AGNC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGNC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGNC ($9.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($23.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGNC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGNC?

Key metric: As AGNC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AGNC. This is calculated by dividing AGNC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AGNC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsUS$1.03b
Market CapUS$8.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGNC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGNC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.7x
RITM Rithm Capital
11.7x20.5%US$5.7b
STWD Starwood Property Trust
17.6x24.3%US$6.4b
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
10.2x7.9%US$2.8b
LADR Ladder Capital
15.2x11.9%US$1.5b
AGNC AGNC Investment
8.2x29.7%US$8.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGNC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGNC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
AGNC 8.2xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGNC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGNC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGNC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGNC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGNC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.45
US$10.44
+10.4%
7.4%US$12.00US$9.00n/a12
Dec ’25US$9.66
US$10.48
+8.5%
7.0%US$12.00US$9.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$9.31
US$10.52
+13.0%
6.7%US$12.00US$9.00n/a12
Oct ’25US$10.27
US$10.52
+2.4%
6.7%US$12.00US$9.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$10.21
US$10.25
+0.4%
5.7%US$11.00US$9.00n/a12
Aug ’25US$10.08
US$10.17
+0.9%
5.3%US$11.00US$9.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$9.48
US$9.83
+3.7%
4.2%US$10.50US$9.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$9.59
US$9.83
+2.5%
4.2%US$10.50US$9.00n/a12
May ’25US$9.25
US$9.83
+6.3%
4.2%US$10.50US$9.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$9.80
US$9.93
+1.3%
4.8%US$10.50US$9.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$9.58
US$9.93
+3.7%
4.8%US$10.50US$9.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$9.67
US$9.90
+2.4%
4.9%US$10.50US$9.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$9.81
US$8.83
-10.0%
9.8%US$10.50US$7.50n/a10
Dec ’24US$9.05
US$8.47
-6.4%
6.0%US$9.00US$7.50US$9.669
Nov ’24US$7.76
US$8.56
+10.3%
12.2%US$11.00US$7.50US$9.318
Oct ’24US$9.44
US$10.75
+13.9%
4.7%US$11.50US$10.00US$10.279
Sep ’24US$9.96
US$10.53
+5.7%
5.0%US$11.25US$9.50US$10.2110
Aug ’24US$10.11
US$10.53
+4.1%
5.0%US$11.25US$9.50US$10.0810
Jul ’24US$10.13
US$10.48
+3.4%
5.7%US$11.25US$9.50US$9.4810
Jun ’24US$9.45
US$10.48
+10.8%
5.7%US$11.25US$9.50US$9.5910
May ’24US$9.57
US$10.61
+10.9%
6.1%US$12.00US$9.50US$9.2511
Apr ’24US$10.08
US$11.68
+15.9%
4.7%US$12.50US$10.50US$9.8011
Mar ’24US$10.59
US$11.68
+10.3%
4.7%US$12.50US$10.50US$9.5811
Feb ’24US$11.95
US$11.41
-4.5%
8.2%US$12.50US$9.00US$9.6711
Jan ’24US$10.35
US$9.50
-8.2%
9.2%US$11.25US$8.50US$9.8111
Dec ’23US$10.07
US$8.98
-10.9%
3.8%US$9.50US$8.50US$9.0511

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

AGNC Investment Corp. is covered by 34 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Terry MaBarclays
Mark DeVriesBarclays
Derek HewettBofA Global Research