Advanced Flower Capital Inc.

NasdaqGM:AFCG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$211.2m

Advanced Flower Capital Valuation

Is AFCG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFCG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFCG ($9.67) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($9.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFCG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFCG?

Key metric: As AFCG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFCG. This is calculated by dividing AFCG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFCG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.5x
EarningsUS$5.25m
Market CapUS$211.18m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFCG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFCG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average44.5x
MITT AG Mortgage Investment Trust
3.4x-31.6%US$196.2m
SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust
10.3x-3.0%US$193.0m
ACR ACRES Commercial Realty
17.8x-10.3%US$119.9m
SUNS Sunrise Realty Trust
146.4x97.6%US$103.5m
AFCG Advanced Flower Capital
40.5x34.7%US$211.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.5x) compared to the peer average (44.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFCG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
AFCG 40.5xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFCG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.5x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFCG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFCG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.5x
Fair PE Ratio16.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFCG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFCG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.67
US$12.25
+26.7%
15.7%US$14.00US$9.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$9.65
US$12.25
+26.9%
15.7%US$14.00US$9.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$9.98
US$12.00
+20.2%
18.0%US$14.00US$9.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$10.46
US$13.00
+24.3%
22.6%US$16.00US$9.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$8.78
US$13.33
+51.9%
18.7%US$16.00US$10.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$12.08
US$13.33
+10.4%
18.7%US$16.00US$10.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$11.75
US$13.33
+13.5%
18.7%US$16.00US$10.00n/a3
May ’25US$11.93
US$13.67
+14.6%
19.2%US$16.00US$10.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$12.06
US$14.67
+21.6%
25.1%US$19.00US$10.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$11.52
US$14.67
+27.3%
25.1%US$19.00US$10.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$11.98
US$15.50
+29.4%
22.6%US$19.00US$10.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$12.03
US$15.50
+28.8%
22.6%US$19.00US$10.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$11.66
US$15.50
+32.9%
22.6%US$19.00US$10.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$10.54
US$17.50
+66.0%
30.9%US$25.00US$10.00US$9.654
Oct ’24US$11.74
US$17.50
+49.1%
30.9%US$25.00US$10.00US$9.984
Sep ’24US$13.23
US$17.50
+32.3%
30.9%US$25.00US$10.00US$10.464
Aug ’24US$13.94
US$16.80
+20.5%
30.0%US$25.00US$10.00US$8.785
Jul ’24US$12.45
US$16.80
+34.9%
30.0%US$25.00US$10.00US$12.085
Jun ’24US$11.72
US$16.80
+43.3%
30.0%US$25.00US$10.00US$11.755
May ’24US$11.91
US$20.33
+70.7%
24.4%US$30.00US$14.00US$11.936
Apr ’24US$12.16
US$20.33
+67.2%
24.4%US$30.00US$14.00US$12.066
Mar ’24US$15.59
US$22.42
+43.8%
19.2%US$30.00US$16.50US$11.526
Feb ’24US$15.69
US$22.59
+44.0%
17.7%US$30.00US$16.50US$11.987
Jan ’24US$15.73
US$22.74
+44.5%
16.7%US$30.00US$17.50US$12.037
Dec ’23US$17.60
US$22.74
+29.2%
16.7%US$30.00US$17.50US$11.667
Nov ’23US$17.13
US$22.74
+32.7%
16.7%US$30.00US$17.50US$10.547

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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