McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MDND.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MDND.F ($39) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($37.64)

Is MDND.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDND.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDND.F ($39) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($37.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDND.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDND.F?

Key metric: As MDND.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MDND.F. This is calculated by dividing MDND.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MDND.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	27.8x
Earnings	JP¥29.33b
Market Cap	JP¥816.37b

MDND.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.2x
PEG Ratio	3.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDND.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDND.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.8x
EAT Brinker International	31.1x	18.7%	US$5.8b
WEN Wendy's	19.5x	7.5%	US$3.8b
ARMK Aramark	41x	24.3%	US$10.8b
CAKE Cheesecake Factory	19.8x	16.0%	US$2.5b
MDND.F McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)	27.8x	8.4%	US$815.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDND.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDND.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings	3.9x	n/a	US$6.49m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate	1.7x	n/a	US$2.05m

No more companies available in this PE range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDND.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDND.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDND.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	27.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MDND.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDND.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	US$48.16 0%	4.1%	US$50.11	US$46.21	n/a	2
Nov ’25	US$41.35	US$50.37 +21.8%	4.1%	US$52.42	US$48.33	n/a	2
Oct ’25	n/a	US$50.37 0%	4.1%	US$52.42	US$48.33	n/a	2
Sep ’25	n/a	US$50.22 0%	4.1%	US$52.26	US$48.19	n/a	2
Aug ’25	US$40.00	US$47.75 +19.4%	4.1%	US$49.69	US$45.81	n/a	2
Jul ’25	US$39.59	US$47.75 +20.6%	4.1%	US$49.69	US$45.81	n/a	2
Jun ’25	US$41.50	US$47.75 +15.1%	4.1%	US$49.69	US$45.81	n/a	2
May ’25	n/a	US$48.81 0%	4.8%	US$51.13	US$46.49	n/a	2
Apr ’25	n/a	US$48.81 0%	4.8%	US$51.13	US$46.49	n/a	2
Mar ’25	US$45.99	US$48.81 +6.1%	4.8%	US$51.13	US$46.49	n/a	2
Feb ’25	n/a	US$43.85 0%	2.3%	US$44.84	US$42.86	n/a	2
Jan ’25	n/a	US$43.85 0%	2.3%	US$44.84	US$42.86	n/a	2
Dec ’24	n/a	US$43.85 0%	2.3%	US$44.84	US$42.86	n/a	2
Nov ’24	n/a	US$44.31 0%	0.8%	US$44.66	US$43.97	US$41.35	2
Oct ’24	n/a	US$44.31 0%	0.8%	US$44.66	US$43.97	n/a	2
Sep ’24	n/a	US$44.31 0%	0.8%	US$44.66	US$43.97	n/a	2
Aug ’24	US$39.90	US$46.30 +16.1%	1.6%	US$47.04	US$45.57	US$40.00	2
Jul ’24	n/a	US$46.30 0%	1.6%	US$47.04	US$45.57	US$39.59	2
Jun ’24	n/a	US$46.30 0%	1.6%	US$47.04	US$45.57	US$41.50	2
May ’24	n/a	US$48.86 0%	4.6%	US$51.11	US$46.60	n/a	2
Apr ’24	n/a	US$48.86 0%	4.6%	US$51.11	US$46.60	n/a	2
Mar ’24	US$39.74	US$48.86 +23.0%	4.6%	US$51.11	US$46.60	US$45.99	2
Feb ’24	US$39.95	US$39.53 -1.1%	4.5%	US$41.31	US$37.75	n/a	2
Jan ’24	n/a	US$39.53 0%	4.5%	US$41.31	US$37.75	n/a	2
Dec ’23	US$36.75	US$39.53 +7.6%	4.5%	US$41.31	US$37.75	n/a	2
Nov ’23	n/a	US$43.89 0%	0.9%	US$44.26	US$43.51	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.