Aristocrat Leisure Limited

OTCPK:ARLU.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$23.8b

Aristocrat Leisure Valuation

Is ARLU.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ARLU.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Fair Value: ARLU.F ($38.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($51.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARLU.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARLU.F?

Key metric: As ARLU.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARLU.F. This is calculated by dividing ARLU.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARLU.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.1x
EarningsAU$1.18b
Market CapAU$35.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARLU.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARLU.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average48.4x
MGM MGM Resorts International
140.1x35.40%US$9.5b
WYNN Wynn Resorts
23.9x9.67%US$12.0b
LVS Las Vegas Sands
26x14.73%US$40.5b
BYD Boyd Gaming
3.6x-56.34%US$6.9b
ARLU.F Aristocrat Leisure
30.1x13.34%US$35.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARLU.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the peer average (48.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARLU.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BYD Boyd Gaming
3.6x-56.34%US$6.88b
MHGU Meritage Hospitality Group
2.7xn/aUS$14.78m
DHCC Diamondhead Casino
0.5xn/aUS$217.79k
No more companies available in this PE range
ARLU.F 30.1xIndustry Avg. 21.4xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARLU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (21.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARLU.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARLU.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.1x
Fair PE Ratio25.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARLU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARLU.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$38.59
US$48.93
+26.79%
5.10%US$55.18US$44.98n/a15
Jan ’27US$38.70
US$47.09
+21.68%
5.07%US$52.58US$43.33n/a15
Dec ’26US$39.20
US$47.09
+20.12%
5.07%US$52.58US$43.33n/a15
Nov ’26US$40.90
US$48.96
+19.70%
6.09%US$56.90US$42.71n/a15
Oct ’26US$45.00
US$48.37
+7.49%
5.17%US$52.46US$43.00n/a15
Sep ’26US$47.56
US$46.70
-1.81%
8.93%US$51.78US$33.95n/a15
Aug ’26US$46.14
US$45.63
-1.10%
8.48%US$50.80US$33.44n/a15
Jul ’26US$42.18
US$45.94
+8.90%
8.31%US$51.33US$33.79n/a15
Jun ’26US$37.25
US$45.56
+22.32%
8.31%US$50.92US$33.51n/a15
May ’26US$42.19
US$48.12
+14.07%
10.53%US$53.62US$31.91n/a15
Apr ’26US$38.65
US$48.03
+24.26%
11.25%US$53.56US$31.51n/a15
Mar ’26US$45.74
US$48.40
+5.83%
11.29%US$53.55US$31.50n/a15
Feb ’26US$47.00
US$44.67
-4.95%
10.75%US$50.51US$31.27n/a14
Jan ’26US$42.55
US$45.13
+6.08%
9.50%US$49.71US$32.28US$38.7014
Dec ’25US$41.79
US$45.13
+8.00%
9.50%US$49.71US$32.28US$39.2014
Nov ’25US$39.00
US$39.25
+0.65%
9.53%US$44.58US$31.47US$40.9014
Oct ’25US$38.35
US$37.53
-2.15%
10.18%US$43.30US$28.06US$45.0014
Sep ’25US$36.05
US$35.59
-1.28%
8.16%US$39.35US$27.44US$47.5614
Aug ’25US$36.41
US$35.78
-1.74%
8.65%US$40.03US$27.92US$46.1414
Jul ’25US$32.65
US$34.30
+5.07%
8.07%US$37.29US$27.35US$42.1813
Jun ’25US$30.15
US$33.52
+11.19%
7.30%US$37.57US$27.55US$37.2512
May ’25US$25.76
US$30.50
+18.39%
9.07%US$34.99US$23.48US$42.1912
Apr ’25US$27.61
US$31.23
+13.12%
9.67%US$35.79US$23.55US$38.6512
Mar ’25US$29.92
US$30.35
+1.45%
9.23%US$35.59US$23.41US$45.7412
Feb ’25US$29.00
US$30.38
+4.75%
9.17%US$35.95US$23.65US$47.0012
Jan ’25US$27.89
US$30.36
+8.85%
8.54%US$34.74US$23.72US$42.5512
US$48.59
Fair Value
20.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/15 18:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/13 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aristocrat Leisure Limited is covered by 26 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Baxter KirkBell Potter
Sriharsh SinghBofA Global Research