Aristocrat Leisure Limited

OTCPK:ARLU.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$27.1b

Aristocrat Leisure Valuation

Is ARLU.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARLU.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARLU.F ($44.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($47.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARLU.F is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARLU.F?

Key metric: As ARLU.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARLU.F. This is calculated by dividing ARLU.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARLU.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio33.5x
EarningsAU$1.30b
Market CapAU$43.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARLU.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARLU.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.5x
LVS Las Vegas Sands
25x15.7%US$37.7b
CHDN Churchill Downs
23.7x16.3%US$9.7b
MGM MGM Resorts International
11.5x9.2%US$10.4b
LNW Light & Wonder
25.8x22.3%US$7.7b
ARLU.F Aristocrat Leisure
33.5x9.4%US$43.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARLU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.5x) compared to the peer average (21.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARLU.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
ARLU.F 33.5xIndustry Avg. 23.3xNo. of Companies16PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARLU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.5x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARLU.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARLU.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33.5x
Fair PE Ratio24.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARLU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARLU.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$44.70
US$45.10
+0.9%
9.5%US$49.67US$32.25n/a14
Dec ’25US$41.79
US$45.45
+8.8%
9.5%US$50.07US$32.51n/a14
Nov ’25US$39.00
US$39.25
+0.6%
9.5%US$44.58US$31.47n/a14
Oct ’25US$38.35
US$37.53
-2.1%
10.2%US$43.30US$28.06n/a14
Sep ’25US$36.05
US$35.59
-1.3%
8.2%US$39.35US$27.44n/a14
Aug ’25US$36.41
US$35.78
-1.7%
8.6%US$40.03US$27.92n/a14
Jul ’25US$32.65
US$34.30
+5.1%
8.1%US$37.29US$27.35n/a13
Jun ’25US$30.15
US$33.52
+11.2%
7.3%US$37.57US$27.55n/a12
May ’25US$25.76
US$30.50
+18.4%
9.1%US$34.99US$23.48n/a12
Apr ’25US$27.61
US$31.23
+13.1%
9.7%US$35.79US$23.55n/a12
Mar ’25US$29.92
US$30.35
+1.5%
9.2%US$35.59US$23.41n/a12
Feb ’25US$29.00
US$30.38
+4.8%
9.2%US$35.95US$23.65n/a12
Jan ’25US$27.89
US$30.36
+8.9%
8.5%US$34.74US$23.72n/a12
Dec ’24US$26.27
US$30.15
+14.8%
7.7%US$35.43US$25.69US$41.7912
Nov ’24US$24.12
US$28.66
+18.8%
6.7%US$31.91US$25.10US$39.0012
Oct ’24US$26.30
US$28.71
+9.2%
7.2%US$32.23US$25.36US$38.3512
Sep ’24US$25.66
US$28.70
+11.8%
6.4%US$32.51US$25.57US$36.0512
Aug ’24US$26.26
US$29.10
+10.8%
6.6%US$33.18US$26.11US$36.4113
Jul ’24US$25.16
US$29.69
+18.0%
6.3%US$34.11US$26.84US$32.6513
Jun ’24US$24.56
US$29.19
+18.9%
6.3%US$33.38US$26.26US$30.1514
May ’24US$25.34
US$28.46
+12.3%
10.2%US$36.27US$23.59US$25.7614
Apr ’24US$24.65
US$28.14
+14.1%
10.1%US$36.03US$23.43US$27.6114
Mar ’24US$24.93
US$28.38
+13.8%
6.5%US$31.11US$24.37US$29.9214
Feb ’24US$24.39
US$28.32
+16.1%
6.4%US$31.02US$24.30US$29.0014
Jan ’24US$21.00
US$27.36
+30.3%
6.6%US$30.01US$23.51US$27.8913
Dec ’23US$23.75
US$27.28
+14.9%
6.4%US$30.02US$23.51US$26.2715

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 16:53
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aristocrat Leisure Limited is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Swapan PandyaAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited