Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC): Assessing Valuation After a 20% Share Price Drop This Year

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) shares have had a tough stretch, with the stock down nearly 5% over the past year and posting negative returns across the past month and past 3 months. Investors are now watching how these moves compare with the company’s recent annual growth figures in sales and profit.

See our latest analysis for Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

While Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s share price slipped recently and is down nearly 20% year-to-date, the real story is its longer-term performance. Total shareholder returns have fallen almost 5% over the last year and over 46% in three years, which indicates that investors remain cautious about the company’s ability to regain momentum. This is despite pockets of growth in annual revenue and profit.

If you’re weighing opportunities beyond the vacation ownership sector, this is a great moment to expand your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares trading at a significant discount to most analyst price targets, is Marriott Vacations Worldwide being overlooked, or are investors correctly gauging the pace of its future recovery and growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.9% Undervalued

The current narrative sets Marriott Vacations Worldwide's fair value well above the last close, suggesting expectations for a sizable re-rating if targets hold. With analysts forecasting a meaningful gap between today's price and where they see value, anticipation is building for what justifies this optimism.

Ongoing modernization initiatives, including advanced analytics, AI-based propensity models, expanded digital marketing channels, and automation, are expected to deliver $150M to $200M in incremental adjusted EBITDA run-rate benefits by the end of the next year, improving both revenue and margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering what’s really powering this bullish picture? The biggest forecast shifts rest on a blend of high recurring revenue bets, slimmer future margins, and an earnings rerating that could upend sector conventions. Unpack what’s fueling analysts' conviction in this ambitious valuation by digging into the full story.

Result: Fair Value of $91.90 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persisting declines in owner sales and mounting credit risks could challenge expectations for a swift recovery and sustained earnings growth in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott Vacations Worldwide narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott Vacations Worldwide Narrative

If you'd rather look at the numbers firsthand and draw your own insights, you can easily craft your own perspective in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marriott Vacations Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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