A Fresh Look at Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s Valuation After Leadership Shakeup and Analyst Downgrades

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE:VAC) is drawing fresh attention from investors after its boardroom saw notable upheaval this week. CEO John Geller stepped down at the request of the board, with Matthew Avril named interim CEO.

See our latest analysis for Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

The sudden executive changes at Marriott Vacations Worldwide come on the heels of a tough stretch for shareholders. After lackluster third-quarter earnings, lowered annual guidance, and several analyst downgrades, the stock’s share price return has slumped nearly 47% year-to-date, with the one-year total shareholder return off 48%. Short-term momentum remains weak and long-term holders have also endured steep declines, reflecting both operational concerns and shifting risk perceptions around the business.

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With the share price down sharply but management reiterating buybacks and analyst targets still well above current levels, investors are left to wonder: is Marriott Vacations Worldwide undervalued, or is the market already pricing in limited growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 46.9% Undervalued

Compared to Marriott Vacations Worldwide's last close of $46.05, the most followed narrative suggests a significant discount to a fair value of $86.80. Market sentiment lags well behind what analysts see as a justified valuation, hinting at a substantial gap between price and projected future performance.

Ongoing modernization initiatives, including advanced analytics, AI-based propensity models, expanded digital marketing channels, and automation, are expected to deliver $150M to $200M in incremental adjusted EBITDA run-rate benefits by the end of the next year, improving both revenue and margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what numbers power this striking fair value? Bold projections for profit growth, new sales catalysts and margin expansion are hiding just beneath the surface. The full narrative reveals exactly which financial assumptions drive this undervalued call. Are you ready to uncover the details?

Result: Fair Value of $86.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, while modernization offers promise, slowing owner sales and rising credit risk could quickly challenge forecasts for profit recovery and margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott Vacations Worldwide narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott Vacations Worldwide Narrative

Not convinced by the consensus narrative or want to run your own numbers? Take a hands-on approach and see what you uncover yourself in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marriott Vacations Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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