Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

NYSE:VAC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.5b

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 118.8% and 16.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 102.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 11.3% in 3 years.

Key information

118.8%

Earnings growth rate

102.55%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth18.1%
Revenue growth rate16.2%
Future return on equity11.28%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated12 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 07

Marriott Vacations Worldwide: Upside Has Already Traveled Enough

Summary Marriott Vacations Worldwide delivered 43% returns since prior coverage, but I now downgrade from buy to hold as valuation approaches full pricing. VAC's Q1 revenue grew 4.8% YoY, but operating expenses rose 9.2%, compressing net income margin to 1.7% from 4.8%. Cost pressures from inflation and rising debt (Net Debt/EBITDA at 9.2x) warrant caution, though affluent customer base and rental flexibility offer resilience. My updated DDM target price is $78.24, near current levels; technicals show waning buying momentum and increased selling pressure. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 30

VAC: Future Turnaround Will Be Constrained By Ongoing Execution And Organizational Dysfunction Risk

Analysts now estimate fair value for Marriott Vacations Worldwide at $50, down from $52, reflecting modestly adjusted revenue growth and P/E assumptions, as well as a mix of recent price target increases and rating changes tied to the new CEO and evolving turnaround expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Marriott Vacations Worldwide highlights a split view, with some firms raising price targets and others dialing back expectations or ratings as they reassess the turnaround story and execution under the new CEO.
Narrative Update • Apr 13

VAC: New Leadership And Owner Engagement Events Will Drive Brand And Asset Value

Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Marriott Vacations Worldwide to $105 from $81. This change reflects updated views on the company that incorporate a slightly lower discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Mar 30

VAC: Future Turnaround Will Be Limited By Ongoing Organizational Dysfunction Risk

Analysts have increased their price targets on Marriott Vacations Worldwide to a range of roughly $80 to $105, citing progress under the new CEO in addressing sales force issues, using events and experiences to support owner upgrades, and reassessing long term earnings assumptions despite mixed views on how far the turnaround can go. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture, with several firms lifting price targets and highlighting progress under new leadership, while others remain cautious about how much the turnaround can ultimately achieve.
Narrative Update • Mar 16

VAC: New CEO Execution And Events Focus Will Shape Turnaround Confidence

The analyst fair value estimate for Marriott Vacations Worldwide has shifted from $64.00 to $78.60, reflecting a reset of revenue growth and margin expectations as analysts weigh new CEO execution progress against ongoing internal concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marriott Vacations Worldwide reflects a mix of optimism around a potential turnaround under new leadership and caution about execution risks and internal issues.
Narrative Update • Mar 02

VAC: Turnaround Hopes Will Be Constrained By Execution And Margin Risks

Narrative Update: Marriott Vacations Worldwide The updated analyst price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide moves to $52 from $46. Analysts point to a potential turnaround under new management, a wider profit margin outlook, and a lower future P/E assumption as key supports for the change.
Narrative Update • Feb 16

VAC: Underweight Rating And Lower P/E Assumptions Will Pressure Shares

Analysts have lowered their price target on Marriott Vacations Worldwide from $65 to $46, citing updated forecasts that include revised revenue growth, profit margin expectations, a lower assumed future P/E multiple, and a recent downgrade to Underweight from Morgan Stanley research. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are flagging that the lower price target to $46 reflects a more cautious stance on both valuation and execution.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

VAC: Execution Reset And Leadership Transition Will Unlock Brand And Asset Value

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide to about US$81. The shift reflects recent underweight and downgraded ratings that point to execution issues, mixed earnings, and a period of management transition, even as some firms continue to highlight the company’s underlying brand and asset value.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

VAC: Execution Reset And Leadership Change Will Unlock Depressed Earnings Multiple

Analysts have reduced their price target on Marriott Vacations Worldwide to US$81 from about US$92. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly softer revenue growth, lower profit margins, a higher future P/E multiple, and recent Street research that highlights execution challenges, industry headwinds, and a transition period for the business.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

VAC: Leadership Transition Expected To Reset Execution And Unlock Depressed Multiples

Analysts have sharply reduced their price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide to approximately $92 from $127, citing weaker operational execution, industry headwinds, and a more cautious view on the company’s near term earnings power, despite some longer term brand and asset value. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marriott Vacations Worldwide reflects a cautious but not uniformly pessimistic outlook, with several firms recalibrating their models following softer results and operational missteps.
Narrative Update • Dec 20

VAC: Execution Reset And CEO Transition Will Shape Future Confidence And Upside Potential

Analysts modestly reduced our price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide to reflect a more cautious stance from the Street, with targets now clustered in the mid 50s to low 80s range as analysts cite execution missteps, guidance cuts, and lingering industry headwinds, despite still-recognized asset value. Analyst Commentary Street commentary on Marriott Vacations Worldwide has turned more polarized, with bearish analysts emphasizing a difficult transition period and bullish analysts focusing on asset value and potential recovery in earnings power once execution stabilizes.
Narrative Update • Dec 06

VAC: Improved Execution Will Restore Confidence And Unlock Long-Term Upside

Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Marriott Vacations Worldwide by about $4 to approximately $64 per share. This reflects reduced revenue growth expectations, a lower future P/E multiple, and lingering concerns over execution and industry headwinds, despite slightly improved margin assumptions.
Narrative Update • Nov 22

VAC: Improved Execution Will Drive Future Upside Amid Transition Period

The analyst price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide has declined significantly from $86.80 to $68.00, as analysts cite ongoing operational challenges and diminished earnings prospects for the company. Analyst Commentary Analysts have provided a range of updated assessments for Marriott Vacations Worldwide, highlighting both potential strengths and numerous risks facing the company in the near term.
Analysis Article • Nov 12

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) Stock's 28% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) share price has dived...
Narrative Update • Nov 08

VAC: Improved Profit Margins Will Drive Recovery Despite Earnings Setback

The average analyst price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide has been lowered from $91.90 to $86.80, as analysts cite underperformance in recent earnings and a weaker than anticipated adjusted EBITDA outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports reflect a more cautious sentiment on Marriott Vacations Worldwide, with shifts in both positive and negative outlooks regarding the company's valuation and execution after the latest earnings report.
Analysis Article • Jul 31

Is There Now An Opportunity In Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC)?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share...
Analysis Article • Jul 15

There's No Escaping Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:VAC) Muted Earnings Despite A 29% Share Price Rise

Despite an already strong run, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) shares have been powering on, with...
Analysis Article • Jul 05

Is There An Opportunity With Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:VAC) 48% Undervaluation?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Marriott Vacations Worldwide fair value estimate is US$155...
Analysis Article • Jun 20

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's (NYSE:VAC) Returns Have Hit A Wall

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...
Analysis Article • May 09

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:VAC) Shares Bounce 26% But Its Business Still Trails The Market

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has...
Analysis Article • Apr 01

Should You Investigate Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) At US$64.24?

While Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received...
Analysis Article • Mar 16

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's (NYSE:VAC) Returns Have Hit A Wall

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Amongst...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 15

Marriott Vacations: Time To Own Shares In This Timeshare

Summary Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation shows strong financial performance with an 11.1% YoY revenue increase, despite inflationary pressures. VAC's strategic locations and large market presence drive growth, targeting high-net-worth individuals and leveraging tourism resilience. The stock is underpriced with improving technicals, offering a 22.8% upside potential based on DCF and Dividend Discount Models. Despite weak momentum, VAC's solid fundamentals and growth prospects make it an ideal buy for investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Feb 14

A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:VAC) Share Price

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's ( NYSE:VAC ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.7x might make it look...
Analysis Article • Dec 12

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's (NYSE:VAC) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) has announced that the dividend on 3rd of January...
Analysis Article • Dec 07

Is It Time To Consider Buying Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC)?

While Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 26

Marriott Vacations: Business Normalizing As Delinquencies Stabilize

Summary Marriott Vacations Worldwide has seen a 29% gain over the past year, with recent recovery post-summer volatility, but remains below Q2 highs. Q3 results showed a $1.80 EPS, beating estimates by $0.20, with revenue up 10% to $1.3 billion, driven by Hawaii's recovery. Financing revenue rose 7%, but credit quality issues persist, with $281 million past due and $516 million in reserves, posing potential risks. Despite stabilizing delinquencies and cost-saving measures, I maintain a "hold" rating on VAC, seeing shares as fairly valued with an 8% free cash flow yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Nov 14

There May Be Reason For Hope In Marriott Vacations Worldwide's (NYSE:VAC) Disappointing Earnings

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's ( NYSE:VAC ) stock was strong despite it releasing a soft earnings report...
Analysis Article • Nov 10

A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:VAC) 30% Share Price Climb

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation ( NYSE:VAC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in...
Analysis Article • Oct 29

Returns On Capital At Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE:VAC) Have Stalled

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a...
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New Narrative • Sep 09

Calculated Shifts And Resort Expansions Set To Propel The Company's Growth And Market Share

Efforts to expand the customer base through increased first-time buyer tours and adjustments in sales promotions indicate proactive strategies to boost future revenues.
Analysis Article • Aug 24

Investors Continue Waiting On Sidelines For Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC)

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's ( NYSE:VAC ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.1x might make it look...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:VAC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20285,412N/A299N/A4
12/31/20275,35129334437410
12/31/20265,21323932536510
3/31/20263,334-342-3516N/A
12/31/20253,334-308-2928N/A
9/30/20253,35817363122N/A
6/30/20253,37825969132N/A
3/31/20253,301227154210N/A
12/31/20243,27821898205N/A
9/30/20243,19420369188N/A
6/30/20243,105161105238N/A
3/31/20243,166214139285N/A
12/31/20233,166254114232N/A
9/30/20233,202307170291N/A
6/30/20233,340374226331N/A
3/31/20233,357420250343N/A
12/31/20223,289391457522N/A
9/30/20223,256364356420N/A
6/30/20223,129265354413N/A
3/31/20222,994135483532N/A
12/31/20212,76249296343N/A
9/30/20212,435-49420444N/A
6/30/20212,075-121502520N/A
3/31/20211,656-197330361N/A
12/31/20201,844-275258299N/A
9/30/20202,199-164310360N/A
6/30/20202,591-111192253N/A
3/31/20203,0968179232N/A
12/31/20193,151138N/A382N/A
9/30/20193,103108N/A210N/A
6/30/20192,83381N/A95N/A
3/31/20192,43543N/A102N/A
12/31/20182,04355N/A97N/A
9/30/20181,637130N/A138N/A
6/30/20181,474206N/A186N/A
3/31/20181,457243N/A119N/A
12/31/20171,433235N/A142N/A
9/30/20171,497166N/A121N/A
6/30/20171,447153N/A134N/A
3/31/20171,396141N/A177N/A
12/30/20161,280122N/A141N/A
9/9/20161,349121N/A99N/A
6/17/20161,360115N/A51N/A
3/25/20161,366113N/A87N/A
1/1/20161,405123N/A118N/A
9/11/20151,39590N/A186N/A
6/19/20151,40194N/A272N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VAC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: VAC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: VAC is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VAC's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VAC's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VAC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/14 11:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/14 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is covered by 19 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brandt MontourBarclays
Shaun KelleyBofA Global Research
Tyler BatoryBrean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery)