Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 22%The analyst price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide has declined significantly from $86.80 to $68.00, as analysts cite ongoing operational challenges and diminished earnings prospects for the company.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have provided a range of updated assessments for Marriott Vacations Worldwide, highlighting both potential strengths and numerous risks facing the company in the near term. Their perspectives center on recent earnings results, ongoing operational execution, and the evolving business environment.
Bullish Takeaways- Some analysts maintain a positive long-term view on Marriott Vacations’ brand strength and asset value. They suggest underlying potential despite recent headwinds.
- The company’s valuation metrics, particularly compared to industry peers, are seen as compelling by a segment of bullish analysts. This implies possible upside if execution improves.
- There is optimism that recent changes, such as leadership transitions, may set the stage for a turnaround or a transition period with growth opportunities ahead.
- Selected bullish forecasts continue to support buy ratings, citing expectations that the stock could rebound with renewed operational discipline or strategic initiatives.
- Bears highlight persistent execution challenges. Operational underperformance has prompted reductions to both earnings expectations and price targets across the board.
- Analysts express concerns about sales effectiveness, including the loss of personnel to competitors and softer tour lead quality. These factors may impede growth recovery.
- The outlook for near-term earnings remains highly uncertain, as guidance cuts and industry headwinds may outweigh attractive valuation signals.
- There is skepticism about a quick turnaround. Many believe internal issues and poor execution are more significant drivers of weakness than broader macroeconomic trends.
What's in the News
- CEO John E. Geller, Jr. resigned at the Board’s request, effective November 10, 2025. Matthew E. Avril has been appointed Interim CEO, bringing over 30 years of industry experience (Key Developments).
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide lowered its 2025 earnings guidance and now expects contract sales between $1,760 million and $1,780 million. This compares to the previous range of $1,740 million to $1,830 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen significantly from $86.80 to $68.00. This reflects a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 12.5%, which indicates consistent risk assumptions in valuation models.
- Revenue Growth projections have decreased from 25.4% to 23.2%. This suggests softer sales expectations moving forward.
- Net Profit Margin has dropped from 8.6% to 6.8%, signaling diminished profitability forecasts.
- Future P/E ratio has risen slightly from 7.35x to 7.49x. This highlights modest changes in anticipated earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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