Update shared on 08 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.55%The average analyst price target for Marriott Vacations Worldwide has been lowered from $91.90 to $86.80, as analysts cite underperformance in recent earnings and a weaker than anticipated adjusted EBITDA outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports reflect a more cautious sentiment on Marriott Vacations Worldwide, with shifts in both positive and negative outlooks regarding the company's valuation and execution after the latest earnings report.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to maintain positive ratings and suggest that current challenges may be already priced into the stock.
- The long-term prospects of Marriott Vacations Worldwide are seen as intact, with analysts expecting the company to recover as operational execution improves.
- Some see potential upside in the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and stabilize earnings over time.
- Bearish analysts highlight the company's adjusted EBITDA falling below consensus, which raises concerns about current execution and management's ability to meet forecasts.
- Valuation concerns persist as underperformance and guidance revisions prompt a reduction in price targets.
- There is caution that shares may continue to lag until there is clear evidence of earnings stabilization and improved visibility into future growth.
- Weaker than expected outlooks have led to a more guarded stance on the company's near-term growth prospects.
What's in the News
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation issued lowered earnings guidance for 2025, with expected contract sales now in the range of $1,760 million to $1,780 million. This compares to the previous guidance of $1,740 million to $1,830 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $91.90 to $86.80, reflecting a decrease in expected valuation.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 12.32% to 12.5%, indicating a marginal increase in assessed investment risk.
- Revenue Growth outlook has increased from 22.9% to 25.4%, suggesting analysts expect stronger future top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin projection has improved from 5.66% to 8.63%, pointing to expectations of greater profitability.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased significantly from 12.1x to 7.4x, signaling that analysts now assign a lower earnings multiple.
Disclaimer
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