TAL Education Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TAL ($10.11) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($15.54)

Is TAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TAL ($10.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TAL?

Key metric: As TAL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TAL. This is calculated by dividing TAL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TAL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	84.6x
Earnings	US$72.40m
Market Cap	US$5.89b

TAL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	241.4x
PEG Ratio	2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	30.6x
LOPE Grand Canyon Education	21.4x	6.4%	US$4.8b
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions	57.2x	33.4%	US$6.6b
LRN Stride	18.9x	14.6%	US$4.5b
EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group	24.7x	20.7%	US$9.4b
TAL TAL Education Group	84.6x	36.1%	US$5.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (84.6x) compared to the peer average (30.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
QSG QuantaSing Group	2.7x	-21.4%	US$143.12m
STG Sunlands Technology Group	1.5x	n/a	US$89.13m
RGS Regis	0.6x	n/a	US$51.35m
REDU RISE Education Cayman	1x	n/a	US$40.41m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (84.6x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	84.6x
Fair PE Ratio	30.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (84.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TAL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$10.11	US$14.04 +38.8%	13.2%	US$17.00	US$10.20	n/a	19
Nov ’25	US$11.02	US$14.01 +27.1%	13.0%	US$17.00	US$10.20	n/a	20
Oct ’25	US$12.13	US$13.36 +10.1%	15.8%	US$17.00	US$9.50	n/a	20
Sep ’25	US$8.04	US$13.69 +70.3%	13.7%	US$17.00	US$9.70	n/a	20
Aug ’25	US$9.08	US$15.55 +71.2%	16.2%	US$21.30	US$9.70	n/a	20
Jul ’25	US$10.49	US$16.08 +53.3%	14.4%	US$21.30	US$9.70	n/a	20
Jun ’25	US$11.36	US$16.10 +41.7%	14.4%	US$21.30	US$9.70	n/a	20
May ’25	US$11.88	US$15.98 +34.5%	15.2%	US$21.30	US$9.70	n/a	19
Apr ’25	US$11.56	US$13.59 +17.5%	25.5%	US$17.70	US$2.90	n/a	17
Mar ’25	US$14.82	US$13.48 -9.0%	25.3%	US$17.70	US$2.90	n/a	17
Feb ’25	US$10.94	US$13.20 +20.6%	23.8%	US$15.80	US$2.90	n/a	17
Jan ’25	US$12.63	US$10.54 -16.5%	28.1%	US$15.00	US$2.90	n/a	15
Dec ’24	US$12.21	US$9.82 -19.6%	29.6%	US$12.60	US$2.90	n/a	17
Nov ’24	US$8.53	US$9.53 +11.8%	31.1%	US$12.30	US$2.90	US$11.02	15
Oct ’24	US$9.11	US$7.44 -18.3%	29.4%	US$10.30	US$2.90	US$12.13	14
Sep ’24	US$7.47	US$6.92 -7.4%	24.9%	US$10.20	US$2.90	US$8.04	15
Aug ’24	US$7.85	US$6.87 -12.5%	24.9%	US$10.20	US$2.90	US$9.08	15
Jul ’24	US$5.96	US$6.72 +12.8%	26.6%	US$10.00	US$2.90	US$10.49	15
Jun ’24	US$6.13	US$6.68 +9.0%	27.6%	US$10.00	US$2.90	US$11.36	14
May ’24	US$5.75	US$6.92 +20.3%	24.6%	US$10.00	US$2.90	US$11.88	13
Apr ’24	US$6.41	US$7.68 +19.7%	30.1%	US$10.18	US$2.90	US$11.56	13
Mar ’24	US$7.40	US$7.68 +3.7%	30.1%	US$10.18	US$2.90	US$14.82	13
Feb ’24	US$7.27	US$7.59 +4.4%	29.6%	US$10.18	US$2.90	US$10.94	14
Jan ’24	US$7.05	US$6.51 -7.6%	33.6%	US$10.18	US$2.90	US$12.63	14
Dec ’23	US$5.47	US$5.89 +7.7%	28.4%	US$10.00	US$2.90	US$12.21	14
Nov ’23	US$4.86	US$5.30 +9.0%	23.2%	US$7.70	US$2.90	US$8.53	12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.