Duolingo, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DUOL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.2b

Duolingo Valuation

Is DUOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DUOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$430.44
Fair Value
36.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DUOL ($272.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($430.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DUOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DUOL?

Key metric: As DUOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DUOL. This is calculated by dividing DUOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DUOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio139.2x
EarningsUS$88.57m
Market CapUS$13.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DUOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DUOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group
20.1x19.9%US$7.7b
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions
50.5x28.4%US$7.2b
LRN Stride
18.8x14.0%US$5.1b
GHC Graham Holdings
5.4xn/aUS$4.0b
DUOL Duolingo
139.2x37.1%US$13.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (139.2x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DUOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
QSG QuantaSing Group
2.4x-18.7%US$145.67m
STG Sunlands Technology Group
1.3xn/aUS$76.40m
RGS Regis
0.5xn/aUS$46.77m
REDU RISE Education Cayman
1xn/aUS$40.41m
DUOL 139.2xIndustry Avg. 18.7xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (139.2x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DUOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DUOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio139.2x
Fair PE Ratio41.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (139.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DUOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$272.49
US$383.58
+40.8%
8.8%US$430.00US$315.12n/a16
Mar ’26US$312.07
US$384.83
+23.3%
10.6%US$430.00US$269.01n/a16
Feb ’26US$363.99
US$352.52
-3.2%
17.3%US$425.00US$200.27n/a16
Jan ’26US$324.23
US$347.91
+7.3%
18.3%US$425.00US$200.27n/a14
Dec ’25US$348.27
US$327.23
-6.0%
16.7%US$408.00US$200.27n/a12
Nov ’25US$293.68
US$273.65
-6.8%
19.3%US$355.00US$183.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$280.66
US$258.82
-7.8%
18.5%US$335.00US$183.00n/a14
Sep ’25US$212.57
US$235.59
+10.8%
11.1%US$271.00US$183.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$164.50
US$250.46
+52.3%
7.8%US$275.00US$198.00n/a13
Jul ’25US$195.23
US$252.23
+29.2%
8.0%US$275.00US$198.00n/a13
Jun ’25US$191.40
US$253.60
+32.5%
8.9%US$275.00US$198.00n/a10
May ’25US$223.03
US$250.83
+12.5%
9.6%US$282.00US$190.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$218.21
US$250.83
+14.9%
9.6%US$282.00US$190.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$236.49
US$246.50
+4.2%
10.6%US$282.00US$190.00US$312.0710
Feb ’25US$181.44
US$213.63
+17.7%
15.1%US$270.00US$160.00US$363.998
Jan ’25US$226.85
US$207.57
-8.5%
16.5%US$270.00US$160.00US$324.237
Dec ’24US$213.30
US$199.71
-6.4%
11.8%US$230.00US$160.00US$348.277
Nov ’24US$148.62
US$174.71
+17.6%
12.9%US$200.00US$140.00US$293.687
Oct ’24US$165.87
US$165.67
-0.1%
11.2%US$195.00US$140.00US$280.666
Sep ’24US$148.92
US$159.80
+7.3%
8.9%US$180.00US$140.00US$212.575
Aug ’24US$152.28
US$151.00
-0.8%
9.4%US$167.00US$132.00US$164.505
Jul ’24US$142.94
US$151.00
+5.6%
8.6%US$167.00US$132.00US$195.236
Jun ’24US$154.14
US$152.63
-1.0%
7.6%US$167.00US$132.00US$191.408
May ’24US$139.39
US$132.38
-5.0%
13.5%US$160.00US$109.00US$223.038
Apr ’24US$142.59
US$118.13
-17.2%
11.7%US$145.00US$99.00US$218.218
Mar ’24US$110.98
US$118.13
+6.4%
11.7%US$145.00US$99.00US$236.498
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
US$383.58
Fair Value
29.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/13 21:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/13 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Duolingo, Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Ross SandlerBarclays
X. LuBarclays