Duolingo, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DUOL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.0b

Duolingo Valuation

Is DUOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DUOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DUOL ($342.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($384.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DUOL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DUOL?

Key metric: As DUOL is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for DUOL. This is calculated by dividing DUOL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is DUOL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio21.8x
SalesUS$689.46m
Market CapUS$15.05b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does DUOL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for DUOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group
2.2x15.3%US$10.0b
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions
2.4x7.9%US$6.3b
LRN Stride
2.1x8.5%US$4.5b
GHC Graham Holdings
0.8x4.0%US$3.8b
DUOL Duolingo
21.8x20.9%US$15.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.8x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does DUOL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WW WW International
0.1x-3.7%US$107.02m
QSG QuantaSing Group
0.2x-0.5%US$99.16m
MYND Mynd.ai
0.2xn/aUS$85.82m
BEDU Bright Scholar Education Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$54.99m
DUOL 21.8xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies16PS012345+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.8x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DUOL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DUOL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio21.8x
Fair PS Ratio5.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: DUOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DUOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$342.12
US$344.77
+0.8%
17.9%US$425.00US$200.27n/a14
Dec ’25US$348.27
US$327.23
-6.0%
16.7%US$408.00US$200.27n/a12
Nov ’25US$293.68
US$273.65
-6.8%
19.3%US$355.00US$183.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$280.66
US$258.82
-7.8%
18.5%US$335.00US$183.00n/a14
Sep ’25US$212.57
US$235.59
+10.8%
11.1%US$271.00US$183.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$164.50
US$250.46
+52.3%
7.8%US$275.00US$198.00n/a13
Jul ’25US$195.23
US$252.23
+29.2%
8.0%US$275.00US$198.00n/a13
Jun ’25US$191.40
US$253.60
+32.5%
8.9%US$275.00US$198.00n/a10
May ’25US$223.03
US$250.83
+12.5%
9.6%US$282.00US$190.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$218.21
US$250.83
+14.9%
9.6%US$282.00US$190.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$236.49
US$246.50
+4.2%
10.6%US$282.00US$190.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$181.44
US$213.63
+17.7%
15.1%US$270.00US$160.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$226.85
US$207.57
-8.5%
16.5%US$270.00US$160.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$213.30
US$199.71
-6.4%
11.8%US$230.00US$160.00US$348.277
Nov ’24US$148.62
US$174.71
+17.6%
12.9%US$200.00US$140.00US$293.687
Oct ’24US$165.87
US$165.67
-0.1%
11.2%US$195.00US$140.00US$280.666
Sep ’24US$148.92
US$159.80
+7.3%
8.9%US$180.00US$140.00US$212.575
Aug ’24US$152.28
US$151.00
-0.8%
9.4%US$167.00US$132.00US$164.505
Jul ’24US$142.94
US$151.00
+5.6%
8.6%US$167.00US$132.00US$195.236
Jun ’24US$154.14
US$152.63
-1.0%
7.6%US$167.00US$132.00US$191.408
May ’24US$139.39
US$132.38
-5.0%
13.5%US$160.00US$109.00US$223.038
Apr ’24US$142.59
US$118.13
-17.2%
11.7%US$145.00US$99.00US$218.218
Mar ’24US$110.98
US$118.13
+6.4%
11.7%US$145.00US$99.00US$236.498
Feb ’24US$97.42
US$107.88
+10.7%
15.3%US$135.00US$84.00US$181.448
Jan ’24US$71.13
US$110.75
+55.7%
14.7%US$135.00US$83.00US$226.858
Dec ’23US$70.65
US$110.75
+56.8%
14.7%US$135.00US$83.00US$213.308

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:49
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Duolingo, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Ross SandlerBarclays
X. LuBarclays