Duolingo, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DUOL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.8b

Duolingo Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Duolingo's earnings are forecast to decline at 25.5% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 12.3% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 30.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 23.6% in 3 years.

Key information

-25.5%

Earnings growth rate

-30.64%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Services earnings growth11.1%
Revenue growth rate12.3%
Future return on equity23.59%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Aug 26

DUOL: Monetization Lag Versus Surging Daily Users Will Likely Pressure Shares

Analysts have nudged the Duolingo fair value estimate higher to $127.07 from $114.91, citing updated models that factor in slightly lower revenue growth assumptions, modestly better profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple in line with recent price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Duolingo has become more mixed in recent months, with several firms lifting price targets and others turning more cautious.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

Duolingo Has Already Been Disrupting The Education Services Industry, But This Is Just The Beginning

Summary Duolingo is positioned as a disruptive, globally recognized EdTech brand with evolving growth potential beyond language learning. DUOL's vision extends to building the world's best AI-powered education platform, with ambitions in official certifications and broader subject offerings. Recent stock declines reflect a valuation correction, not a broken thesis, creating a compelling buying opportunity as the business fundamentals remain intact. DUOL is considered financially healthy, profitable, and attractively valued for both current performance and future growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 12

DUOL: AI Driven User Engagement And DAU Strength Will Support Upside

Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate has increased from about $134 to about $161 as analysts factor in stronger user engagement trends and potential AI tailwinds, while still flagging questions around monetization, growth durability, and valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Duolingo highlights a split view.
Narrative Update • Jul 29

DUOL: Stronger Daily Users Will Likely Mask Waning Monthly Engagement

Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate has increased from $108.14 to $114.91 as analysts incorporate stronger daily active user trends, new monetization options, and updated price targets clustered around $120 to $139. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo clusters around higher price targets and mixed views on how durable current user and revenue momentum may be.
Narrative Update • Jul 15

DUOL: Slowing Monthly User Momentum Will Likely Cap Upside Despite Raised Expectations

Analysts have lifted the Duolingo price target range, with recent moves such as raises to $125, $120 and $82. This reflects a view that moderating AI disintermediation concerns, solid earnings power and stronger near term user and bookings trends support a modestly higher fair value estimate of about $108 per share.
Analysis Article • Jun 20

Duolingo (DUOL) Stock Could Be 53.3% Undervalued Ahead Of Earnings

Duolingo (DUOL) is back in focus after the stock dipped 3.65% in the latest session, as investors evaluate expectations for an upcoming earnings report that combines forecast revenue growth with a projected decline in earnings per share. See our latest analysis for Duolingo. Despite the recent 3.65% daily drop, Duolingo’s 30-day share price return of 18.86% and 90-day share price return of 28.06% point to strengthening short term momentum. However, the 1-year total shareholder return has...
Narrative Update • Jun 16

DUOL: Slowing Monthly Users And Earnings Pressure Will Drive Bearish Repricing

Analysts have revised Duolingo's fair value estimate from $160.00 to $81.00, citing updated assumptions around user growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, even as some firms raise price targets on stronger near-term daily active user trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo highlights a more cautious tone from several bearish analysts, even as some price targets move higher.
Narrative Update • Jun 02

DUOL: AI Led User Engagement And DAU Focus May Support Upside

Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate edges up to $133.98 from $133.96 as analysts balance slightly higher revenue growth assumptions with more cautious views on profit margins and future P/E multiples, following a mix of recent price target raises and cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo presents a mixed picture, with shifts in price targets and ratings reflecting different views on user growth, profitability, and valuation.
Narrative Update • May 16

DUOL: User Growth Pivot And Buyback May Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed the Duolingo fair value estimate slightly to about $134 from about $136. This reflects reduced revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and lower future P/E expectations, partly offset by a slightly higher profit margin outlook after a series of mixed price target changes and ratings downgrades across the Street.
Narrative Update • May 01

DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Expansion Will Define Balanced Risk Reward

The analyst price target for Duolingo has been trimmed slightly to $104.97 from $105.73 as analysts factor in the company’s pivot toward user growth over near term monetization, more conservative bookings expectations for 2026, and a modest reset in long term revenue growth, margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research around Duolingo has turned more cautious as the company leans into a user growth first playbook and reins in 2026 bookings expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Roadmap May Unlock Future Upside

Analysts made a small upward adjustment to Duolingo's fair value estimate to $136.17 as they factor in the company's pivot toward user growth, tempered revenue and margin expectations, and a slightly higher assumed future P/E of about 36.8x following a series of downgrades and reset price targets clustered around $85 to $114. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage has shifted toward a more cautious stance on Duolingo as the company leans into user growth and accepts lower near term visibility on monetization and margins.
Narrative Update • Apr 03

DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Product Work Will Support Upside

Analysts have cut the Duolingo fair value estimate from $156.52 to $136.16, reflecting a series of price target reductions as they reassess monetization, growth visibility, and the impact of the company’s pivot toward user growth over near term profitability. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has tilted cautious on Duolingo, with a series of downgrades and lower price targets following the company’s decision to prioritize daily active user growth over near term monetization and margins.
Narrative Update • Mar 19

DUOL: User Expansion Pivot And AI Investments Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects

Analysts have reduced the Duolingo fair value estimate from about $270.74 to $105.73. This reflects a broad reset in price targets as they reassess slower projected revenue growth, lower profit margins, and a more cautious future P/E multiple tied to the company's pivot toward user growth over near-term monetization.
New Narrative • Mar 06

Duolingo: Billion Dollar Business Hiding in Plain Sight

Duolingo just crossed $1 billion in revenue and delivered a 367% surge in net earnings — yet the stock trades at a trailing P/E of just 11x. For a market-leading EdTech platform with 50 million daily active users, that’s a number you’d normally associate with a slow-moving industrial company, not one of the most recognisable consumer brands on the planet.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

DUOL: Long Term User Focus And AI Features Will Drive Upside

Narrative Update: Duolingo Our updated narrative fair value for Duolingo shifts to $156.52 from $347.00, reflecting analysts' broad reset of price targets to the $85 to $114 range as they recalibrate expectations for bookings growth, profitability, and future P/E multiples in light of the company's focus on user growth over near term monetization. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Duolingo has tilted cautious, with many firms resetting ratings to Neutral or equivalent and clustering price targets around the US$85 to US$114 range.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

DUOL: User Engagement And CFO Transition Will Shape Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have trimmed Duolingo's implied upside, with the consolidated price target moving toward $160 as they factor in slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth expectations, and recent target cuts from firms citing tempered user growth estimates and a more selective market for high multiple internet names. Analyst Commentary Recent research has tilted more cautious, with several Bearish analysts trimming price targets and flagging execution and growth risks around user trends and valuation for Duolingo.
Analysis Article • Feb 05

Earnings Working Against Duolingo, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:DUOL) Share Price Following 37% Dive

Duolingo, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 37...
Narrative Update • Feb 05

DUOL: Long Term User Focus And New Offerings Will Shape Future Repricing

Narrative Update Analysts trimmed their Duolingo fair value estimate from $180 to $160, as lower projected profit margins and valuation multiples outweighed slightly higher modeled revenue growth and a modestly reduced discount rate. This aligns with recent Street price target cuts and more cautious user growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

DUOL: Long Term User Focus And Chess Expansion Will Drive Upside

Analysts cut their Duolingo fair value estimate from about $600 to roughly $347, reflecting lower price targets and more moderate assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, future P/E multiples, and a slightly higher discount rate, as recent research highlights a focus on longer term user growth over near term monetization and mixed reactions to product and user growth trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo centers on a trade off between near term monetization and longer term user growth.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

DUOL: Long Term User Focus And Product Experiments Will Shape Future Repricing

Our Duolingo fair value estimate has been reset from US$390 to US$180 as analysts broadly trim price targets and factor in slightly slower modeled revenue growth, a lower future P/E, and the company's increased focus on long term user expansion over near term monetization following the recent Q3 update and Chess product commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Duolingo, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and, in one case, removing a target altogether.
Narrative Update • Dec 16

DUOL: Long-Term User Expansion Focus Will Drive Renewed Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their Duolingo price target slightly to about $271 from roughly $271.05, reflecting modestly higher discount rates and a greater focus on long term user growth and product investment over near term monetization, even as they acknowledge improving revenue growth and margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research highlights a wide range of views on Duolingo, with most firms trimming price targets but maintaining generally constructive stances on the company’s long term growth algorithm and product roadmap.
Narrative Update • Dec 01

DUOL: Long-Term User Growth Focus Will Drive Renewed Interest Ahead

Duolingo's fair value estimate has been revised downward from $289.81 to $271.05 as analysts reacted to a series of price target reductions. These adjustments were driven by concerns over the company's shifting focus toward long-term user growth instead of prioritizing near-term monetization and profitability.
Narrative Update • Nov 17

DUOL: Focus On Long-Term User Engagement Will Drive Sustained Platform Expansion

Duolingo’s fair value estimate has been sharply reduced from approximately $443 to $290 per share. Analysts point to a combination of lower growth expectations and a strategic pivot toward long-term user engagement over immediate profitability.
Narrative Update • Nov 01

DUOL: User Growth Concerns Will Fade As Engagement Increases In Key Markets

Duolingo's analyst price target has been lowered by $6.50 to $442.74 per share. Analysts cite ongoing concerns over user growth and recent valuation adjustments, even as revenue continues to grow.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education

Analysts have slightly trimmed Duolingo's fair value estimate by $2.50, as modest adjustments to user growth expectations and continued competitive risks are tempering near-term optimism for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reviews of Duolingo reflect a balanced mix of optimism about the company's product strengths and ongoing concerns related to user growth and competition.
Analysis Article • Oct 09

Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump

Those holding Duolingo, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the...
Narrative Update • Oct 03

China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education

Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate has been slightly reduced by approximately $5 to $451.74, as analysts cite ongoing concerns about slower user growth and increased competition, which are impacting future performance expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research highlights a mix of cautious sentiment and continued confidence in Duolingo's long-term prospects, focusing on user growth trends, competitive risks, and valuation concerns.
Narrative Update • Sep 05

China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education

Duolingo’s consensus price target was modestly reduced to $478.65 as analysts cite weaker-than-expected user growth trends, persistent competition risks, and recent social media setbacks, partially offset by confidence in the company’s growth prospects beyond language learning. Analyst Commentary Decelerating user growth and indications that active users and subscribers are trending below consensus estimates have led bearish analysts to reduce targets and downgrade ratings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:DUOL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20281,55321548449014
12/31/20271,36717143844822
12/31/20261,20713839239622
6/30/20261,145411398431N/A
3/31/20261,099422405433N/A
12/31/20251,038414360388N/A
9/30/2025964386348364N/A
6/30/2025885117321336N/A
3/31/202581197289308N/A
12/31/202474889264286N/A
9/30/202468987229251N/A
6/30/202463466210233N/A
3/31/202458346190208N/A
12/31/202353116140154N/A
9/30/2023484-10106116N/A
6/30/2023442-317887N/A
3/31/2023404-505463N/A
12/31/2022369-604454N/A
9/30/2022339-633242N/A
6/30/2022306-743038N/A
3/31/2022277-591825N/A
12/31/2021251-6039N/A
9/30/2021226-53612N/A
6/30/2021208-2739N/A
3/31/2021189-271418N/A
12/31/2020162-161418N/A
12/31/201971-14N/A2N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DUOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-25.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: DUOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-25.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DUOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: DUOL's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DUOL's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DUOL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.6%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/09 22:20
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/09 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Duolingo, Inc. is covered by 30 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Vikram KesavabhotlaBaird
X. LuBarclays
Ross SandlerBarclays