TAL Education Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
TAL Education Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 5.8% and 13.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.5% in 3 years.
Key information
5.8%
Earnings growth rate
10.29%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Services earnings growth | 14.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.7% |
| Future return on equity | 13.55% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 27 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 28
TAL: Macquarie Upgrade And Completed Buybacks Will Support Future Share Rebound
Analysts have nudged their TAL Education Group price target slightly lower to about $15.55, with the update reflecting revised assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiples following recent research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary around the updated price target centers on how TAL Education Group might balance growth ambitions with valuation discipline and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Apr 14
TAL: Future Returns Will Depend On Margins And Recent Buyback Execution
Analysts have adjusted their price target for TAL Education Group to $11.91, reflecting updated views on revenue, profit margins and future P/E assumptions based on recent Street research, including the latest upgrade commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around TAL Education Group highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with the updated US$11.91 price target reflecting both constructive views on the business and a set of clear execution and valuation risks that bearish analysts continue to flag.Seeking Alpha • Apr 07
TAL Education: Device And Tutoring Businesses Have Good Prospects
Summary I maintain a 'Buy' rating for TAL Education after analyzing the outlook for its core businesses. TAL is a dominant player in China's learning tablet industry with a high-20%s market share, and it has introduced a higher-priced new product to take advantage of consumer preference shifts. Strong app engagement and a surge in deferred revenue point to a rapid expansion of TAL's tutoring division. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 31
TAL: Macquarie Upgrade And Buybacks Will Support Future Share Rebound
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on TAL Education Group, keeping fair value steady around $15.65 while fine tuning assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following recent research updates that include a Macquarie upgrade. Analyst Commentary Analysts are reassessing TAL Education Group's setup around the current fair value of about US$15.65, focusing on how revisions to revenue, margin and P/E assumptions support or challenge that level.Narrative Update • Mar 16
TAL: Macquarie Upgrade And Share Buyback Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target for TAL Education Group to $15.65, reflecting updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions informed by recent Street research including the Macquarie upgrade. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts see the revised US$15.65 price target as more in line with updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue trajectory, margins, and P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Mar 02
TAL: Share Buyback And Margin Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on TAL Education Group to $15.65 from $14.46, citing updated assumptions that include a higher fair value estimate, a slightly adjusted discount rate, moderated revenue growth expectations, improved profit margin forecasts, and a lower future P/E multiple referenced in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher fair value estimate as reflecting improved confidence in TAL Education Group's ability to execute on its current business mix, even with moderated revenue growth assumptions baked into the model.Narrative Update • Feb 16
TAL: Future Execution Will Rely On Margins And Share Repurchases
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for TAL Education Group from $11.54 to about $11.91, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E multiples following recent research, including the latest upgrade from Macquarie. Analyst Commentary While the fair value estimate has moved slightly higher, some research commentary still highlights risks that readers should keep in mind when thinking about TAL Education Group's valuation and execution.Narrative Update • Feb 02
TAL: Elevated Expectations Will Depend On Challenging Margin Execution
Analysts have raised their price target fair value on TAL Education Group from $9.55 to $11.54, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that they see reflected in recent research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary around TAL Education Group reflects a mix of optimism on the updated fair value estimate and ongoing caution around execution and valuation risks.
Narrative Update • Jan 19
TAL: Share Repurchases Will Support Higher Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price target on TAL Education Group slightly lower to about US$17.70, citing updated assumptions that include modestly higher revenue growth, a small improvement in profit margins, and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News TAL Education Group completed a share repurchase tranche between July 28, 2025 and October 29, 2025, buying back 4,195,065 shares for US$134.7 million, equal to 0.69% of its shares (company filing).Narrative Update • Jan 05
TAL: Completed Share Repurchase Will Support Higher Future Share Price
Analysts have trimmed their price target on TAL Education Group slightly to about US$14.46 from roughly US$14.48, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. What's in the News TAL Education Group reported completing a share repurchase of 4,195,065 shares, representing 0.69% of the company, for US$134.7 million under its buyback announced on July 31, 2025 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Dec 28
Returns On Capital Are Showing Encouraging Signs At TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL)
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...Narrative Update • Dec 14
TAL: Share Repurchases And Margin Expansion Will Drive Stronger Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on TAL Education Group to approximately $17.70 from about $14.90, citing expectations for stronger profit margins and a lower future valuation multiple that together offset slightly slower projected revenue growth. What's in the News TAL Education Group completed a share repurchase tranche between July 28, 2025 and October 29, 2025, buying back 4,195,065 shares for a total consideration of $134.7 million (Key Developments) The completed buyback represents approximately 0.69% of the company’s outstanding shares, signaling continued capital return to shareholders (Key Developments) This tranche fully exhausts the repurchase authorization announced on July 31, 2025, under which the 4,195,065 shares were acquired (Key Developments) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen meaningfully, increasing from $14.90 to $17.70 per share.Narrative Update • Nov 29
TAL: Share Repurchase Program Completion Will Support Future Price Upside
Analysts have maintained their price target for TAL Education Group at $14.48, citing steady expectations across key financial metrics and no significant changes in recent forecasts. What's in the News TAL Education Group completed the repurchase of 4,195,065 shares, or 0.69% of its outstanding shares, for a total value of $134.7 million.Narrative Update • Nov 15
TAL: Share Buyback Completion Will Drive Further Upside Momentum
Analysts have slightly increased their price target for TAL Education Group. The fair value estimate has been raised from $13.96 to $14.48 based on modest improvements in profit margins and revenue growth forecasts.Narrative Update • Nov 01
TAL: Share Repurchase Program Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their price target for TAL Education Group from $12.99 to $13.96, citing updated evaluations of fair value and noting slight adjustments to key financial metrics in their forecasts. What's in the News TAL Education Group completed a share repurchase program, buying back 4,195,065 shares.Analysis Article • Sep 01
These Return Metrics Don't Make TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) Look Too Strong
Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase...Seeking Alpha • Jan 28
TAL Education Group:Valuation Premium Priced In Strong Results, Maintain Hold
Summary TAL Education Group reported strong Q3 FY2025 results, with net revenues up 62.4% and gross profits up 57.9% year-over-year. Despite the impressive financial performance, I maintain a "hold" rating as the stock price already reflects high-quality growth expectations. TAL's competitive edge lies in its focus on content quality and AI-powered learning devices, positioning it ahead in the education sector. Valuation concerns persist, with TAL trading at a premium; risks include regulatory challenges and potential slower growth in the Peiyou small class business. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 15
TAL Education Group: Strong Growth But Valuation Premium Not Justified, Initiate With 'Hold'
Summary TAL Education Group has successfully transitioned from K-9 academic tutoring to a comprehensive educational service provider, positioning itself for strong growth. Despite TAL's transformation and AI advancements, its current valuation reflects significant optimism, leading to a "hold" rating. Regulatory risks and competitive challenges remain critical concerns for TAL's future performance and market positioning. Investors should monitor regulatory developments and competitive dynamics closely, as these factors could impact TAL's growth trajectory. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 11
TAL Education: Capital Allocation Concerns Overshadow Learning Devices' Growth Potential (Rating Downgrade)
Summary I have downgraded TAL Education Group stock from a Buy to a Hold, after assessing the company's top line growth, operating profitability, and capital allocation. On the negative side of things, TAL's increased focus on investments raises concerns about its future capital return and profitability. On the positive side of things, TAL Education's learning devices business has favorable growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 29
AI Enhancements And Tactical Growth Promise Brighter Futures
Expansion in both online and offline learning platforms, alongside investments in AI such as MathGPT, aims to boost user satisfaction and revenue.Seeking Alpha • Jun 26
TAL Education: Underappreciated Growth
Summary TAL's learning center network is likely to grow significantly in the new fiscal year considering the company's management comments and third-party research data. The company's learning devices are popular with consumers and are well-positioned to gain market share in the future. TAL Education deserves to trade at higher valuations, as the growth outlook for both its learning services business and learning content solutions business is positive. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 12
TAL Education: Focus On Regulatory Development And Earnings Preview
Summary There has been a positive change in the Chinese regulators' stance on K-12 non-academic learning services, as evidenced by recent draft regulations. TAL Education Group is expected to report its Q4 FY 2024 earnings on April 25, and I see the company announcing better-than-expected financial results for the recent quarter. I view TAL Education's shares as attractively valued based on a comparison of its EV/Revenue multiple with its medium-term top-line CAGR estimate. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 29
TAL Education: Turning Bullish On Revenue Beat And Potential Catalysts (Rating Upgrade)
Summary TAL Education's Q3 FY 2024 revenue beat expectations, which drove its shares up by +5.7% on the day of the results release. The introduction of new learning devices to the market and a faster pace of share repurchases could be catalysts for TAL. My rating for TAL is upgraded to a Buy in consideration of potential catalysts and the company's positive sales growth momentum. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 16
Education Provider TAL Counts On AI Devices And MathGPT
Summary TAL Education Group has swung into the black after investing in AI-powered educational devices and developing a newly approved MathGPT tool. TAL’s revenue rose 40% in the second quarter, propelling the education group from a loss to a net profit of $37.9 million. Competition over educational AI is heating up in China, as companies develop large-scale AI models and launch intelligent learning devices. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 29
TAL Education Group: Elevated Expectations
Summary TAL Education Group's share price has done well in recent months, thanks to its Q1 results beat and favorable AI-related developments. However, the downside risk associated with TAL Education potentially reporting below-expectations results going forward has become more significant. A Hold rating for TAL Education Group is maintained; expectations for TAL Education are elevated, implying that positives have been priced into its shares. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 20
TAL Education: What To Watch With Upcoming First Quarter Results
Summary I see TAL delivering in-line Q1 FY 2024 results, so its results announcement next week should be a non-event in terms of potential catalysts for the stock. The key things to watch when previewing TAL's first quarter results are third-party product sales estimates, historical cost trends, and management commentary. I leave my Hold rating for TAL Education stock unchanged, as positive surprises are unlikely to emerge from TAL's Q1 earnings announcement on July 27. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/28/2029 | 4,929 | 672 | 995 | 1,067 | 11 |
| 2/29/2028 | 4,391 | 550 | 771 | 864 | 18 |
| 2/28/2027 | 3,692 | 419 | 705 | 850 | 17 |
| 2/28/2026 | 3,009 | 531 | 601 | 601 | N/A |
| 11/30/2025 | 2,817 | 279 | 478 | 590 | N/A |
| 8/31/2025 | 2,653 | 171 | 329 | 441 | N/A |
| 5/31/2025 | 2,411 | 104 | 386 | 499 | N/A |
| 2/28/2025 | 2,250 | 85 | 285 | 398 | N/A |
| 11/30/2024 | 2,070 | 119 | 479 | 601 | N/A |
| 8/31/2024 | 1,837 | 72 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2024 | 1,629 | 53 | 306 | 427 | N/A |
| 2/29/2024 | 1,490 | -4 | 185 | 306 | N/A |
| 11/30/2023 | 1,330 | -70 | 179 | 289 | N/A |
| 8/31/2023 | 1,189 | -98 | 27 | 138 | N/A |
| 5/31/2023 | 1,071 | -137 | 67 | 178 | N/A |
| 2/28/2023 | 1,020 | -136 | -103 | 7 | N/A |
| 11/30/2022 | 1,292 | -204 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2022 | 2,080 | -252 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2022 | 3,230 | -1,078 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28/2022 | 4,391 | -1,136 | -1,186 | -939 | N/A |
| 11/30/2021 | 5,212 | -1,197 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2021 | 5,311 | -1,141 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2021 | 4,970 | -300 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28/2021 | 4,496 | -116 | 709 | 955 | N/A |
| 11/30/2020 | 3,991 | -37 | 972 | 1,198 | N/A |
| 8/31/2020 | 3,701 | 26 | 1,069 | 1,293 | N/A |
| 5/31/2020 | 3,511 | -12 | 880 | 1,080 | N/A |
| 2/29/2020 | 3,273 | -110 | 668 | 856 | N/A |
| 11/30/2019 | 3,142 | 79 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2019 | 2,952 | 202 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2019 | 2,686 | 284 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28/2019 | 2,563 | 367 | N/A | 194 | N/A |
| 11/30/2018 | 2,341 | 337 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2018 | 2,188 | 254 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2018 | 1,944 | 236 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28/2018 | 1,715 | 198 | N/A | 685 | N/A |
| 11/30/2017 | 1,527 | 163 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2017 | 1,355 | 136 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2017 | 1,170 | 132 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28/2017 | 1,043 | 117 | N/A | 379 | N/A |
| 11/30/2016 | 902 | 93 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2016 | 783 | 89 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2016 | 686 | 97 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2/29/2016 | 620 | 103 | N/A | 197 | N/A |
| 11/30/2015 | 568 | 106 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8/31/2015 | 525 | 107 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5/31/2015 | 474 | 73 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TAL's forecast earnings growth (5.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: TAL's earnings (5.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: TAL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: TAL's revenue (13.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TAL's revenue (13.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TAL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 05:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/02/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/02/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
TAL Education Group is covered by 35 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Yanfang Jiang | Benchmark Company |
| Lucy Yu | BofA Global Research |
| Lei Yang | CGS International |