Super Group (NYSE:SGHC) Valuation in Focus After Upbeat Q3 Results and Raised Revenue Outlook

Super Group (NYSE:SGHC) just reported third-quarter results that show a strong jump in both revenue and net income compared to last year. The company also boosted its full-year revenue guidance, signaling solid momentum.

See our latest analysis for Super Group (SGHC).

After a year marked by upbeat earnings and an upgraded revenue outlook, momentum has clearly been building. Super Group’s share price has rocketed 93% so far this year, while its 1-year total shareholder return stands at an impressive 136%. That kind of growth is a sign investors are rewarding both performance and potential, especially against a backdrop of management’s raised guidance and stronger financials.

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With shares soaring and guidance rising, the key question now is whether Super Group is still trading below its true value or if the recent rally means the market has already priced in all that future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 31.2% Undervalued

Super Group (SGHC) sits at $12.12, while the narrative consensus places fair value near $17.63. The gap is fueling debate about where price can go next, especially as expectations keep climbing on the back of management's confident outlook.

Bullish analysts highlight Super Group's stronger than expected financial outlook, including raised full-year 2025 guidance and new medium-term targets through 2028. These are seen as key drivers supporting higher valuations.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what financial levers justify such a big jump in fair value? The narrative is powered by bold future margin targets and ambitious earnings growth projections, all riding on a few critical assumptions. Ready to uncover the specifics driving this outsized optimism? The full story reveals which forecasts could make or break this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $17.63 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, execution risks and tightening regulatory pressures in key markets may challenge Super Group's ability to deliver on its optimistic medium-term outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Super Group (SGHC) narrative.

Another Perspective: Market Multiples Tell a Different Story

Looking at Super Group’s price-to-earnings ratio, the picture changes. Shares are trading at 26.6 times earnings, which is higher than the US Hospitality industry’s 21.2x average but lower than peer averages and the fair ratio of 36.1x. This places Super Group in a middle ground, offering some value compared to peers but a potential warning if the industry standard prevails. Are investors getting ahead of themselves, or is there still upside left?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Super Group (SGHC) Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive into the numbers yourself, take just a few moments to craft your own view and Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Super Group (SGHC).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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