Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Four Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:FEDU) Shares

It's not a stretch to say that Four Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:FEDU) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for Consumer Services companies in the United States, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Four Seasons Education (Cayman)

What Does Four Seasons Education (Cayman)'s Recent Performance Look Like?

Four Seasons Education (Cayman) certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Four Seasons Education (Cayman), take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Four Seasons Education (Cayman)'s to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an explosive gain to the company's top line. Still, revenue has fallen 55% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Four Seasons Education (Cayman)'s P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that Four Seasons Education (Cayman) trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Four Seasons Education (Cayman) (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com