Is Securing the Texas Lottery Extension Reinforcing Brightstar Lottery’s Global Leadership Narrative (BRSL)?

• Brightstar Lottery PLC recently announced a two-year contract extension with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, allowing the company to continue supplying lottery technology and services for the Texas Lottery through August 31, 2028.
• The renewal with one of the largest U.S. lottery jurisdictions reinforces Brightstar Lottery's presence in the sector and highlights its role as a key technology partner to major lotteries worldwide.
• We'll explore how securing a long-term Texas Lottery contract extension underlines Brightstar’s revenue stability and global leadership narrative.

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Brightstar Lottery Investment Narrative Recap

To see long-term value in Brightstar Lottery, you need to believe that the company’s position as a core technology provider to major lottery jurisdictions, including Texas, can translate into contract-driven revenue visibility, offsetting regulatory and competitive pressures in both the US and abroad. The Texas contract extension signals continued revenue support from a top client, but does not materially change the company’s biggest short-term catalyst, which remains accelerating digital adoption in markets like the US and Italy, nor does it resolve the persistent risk from volatile jackpot-driven earnings swings.

Of recent company updates, Brightstar’s five-year licensing deal with Avanti Licensing Inc. to create lottery games based on their greeting cards is particularly interesting in the context of customer engagement catalysts. While the Texas renewal reinforces core revenues, the Avanti partnership could expand both omni-channel reach and product appeal, aligning with management’s focus on innovation to diversify growth opportunities beyond traditional lottery products.

However, it’s important to remember that beyond contract news and partnerships, periods without large multistate jackpots have already shown that Brightstar’s earnings momentum can be affected by...

Read the full narrative on Brightstar Lottery (it's free!)

Brightstar Lottery's forecast sees revenues reaching $2.6 billion and earnings of $295.9 million by 2028. This projection assumes a 2.5% annual revenue growth rate and represents a $462.9 million improvement in earnings from the current level of -$167.0 million.

Uncover how Brightstar Lottery's forecasts yield a $19.07 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members value the company between US$10.79 and US$19.07, offering two distinct perspectives. Many highlight that contract renewals, while helpful, do not completely offset the unpredictability of jackpot-driven results, which can challenge revenue stability in future years.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Brightstar Lottery - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Brightstar Lottery Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Brightstar Lottery research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Brightstar Lottery research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Brightstar Lottery's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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