Stock Analysis

What Is Biglari Holdings's (NYSE:BH.A) P/E Ratio After Its Share Price Tanked?

NYSE:BH.A
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Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Biglari Holdings (NYSE:BH.A) share price has dived 55% in the last thirty days. Given the 60% drop over the last year, some shareholders might be worried that they have become bagholders. For those wondering, a bagholder is someone who keeps holding a losing stock indefinitely, without taking the time to consider its prospects carefully, going forward.

Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). So, on certain occasions, long term focussed investors try to take advantage of pessimistic expectations to buy shares at a better price. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors' expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E implies that investors have high expectations of what a company can achieve compared to a company with a low P/E ratio.

View our latest analysis for Biglari Holdings

Does Biglari Holdings Have A Relatively High Or Low P/E For Its Industry?

We can tell from its P/E ratio of 2.23 that sentiment around Biglari Holdings isn't particularly high. The image below shows that Biglari Holdings has a lower P/E than the average (13.8) P/E for companies in the hospitality industry.

NYSE:BH.A Price Estimation Relative to Market March 27th 2020
NYSE:BH.A Price Estimation Relative to Market March 27th 2020

Biglari Holdings's P/E tells us that market participants think it will not fare as well as its peers in the same industry. While current expectations are low, the stock could be undervalued if the situation is better than the market assumes. If you consider the stock interesting, further research is recommended. For example, I often monitor director buying and selling.

How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

Companies that shrink earnings per share quickly will rapidly decrease the 'E' in the equation. That means even if the current P/E is low, it will increase over time if the share price stays flat. Then, a higher P/E might scare off shareholders, pushing the share price down.

In the last year, Biglari Holdings grew EPS like Taylor Swift grew her fan base back in 2010; the 136% gain was both fast and well deserved. The sweetener is that the annual five year growth rate of 18% is also impressive. With that kind of growth rate we would generally expect a high P/E ratio. Regrettably, the longer term performance is poor, with EPS down -18% per year over 3 years.

Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits

Don't forget that the P/E ratio considers market capitalization. That means it doesn't take debt or cash into account. In theory, a company can lower its future P/E ratio by using cash or debt to invest in growth.

Spending on growth might be good or bad a few years later, but the point is that the P/E ratio does not account for the option (or lack thereof).

So What Does Biglari Holdings's Balance Sheet Tell Us?

Biglari Holdings's net debt equates to 39% of its market capitalization. While that's enough to warrant consideration, it doesn't really concern us.

The Bottom Line On Biglari Holdings's P/E Ratio

Biglari Holdings's P/E is 2.2 which is below average (13.4) in the US market. The company does have a little debt, and EPS growth was good last year. If the company can continue to grow earnings, then the current P/E may be unjustifiably low. What can be absolutely certain is that the market has become more pessimistic about Biglari Holdings over the last month, with the P/E ratio falling from 5.0 back then to 2.2 today. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for deep value investors this stock might justify some research.

Investors have an opportunity when market expectations about a stock are wrong. If it is underestimating a company, investors can make money by buying and holding the shares until the market corrects itself. Although we don't have analyst forecasts you might want to assess this data-rich visualization of earnings, revenue and cash flow.

But note: Biglari Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20).

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.