Aramark (ARMK): Exploring Whether Steady Three‑Year Gains Still Leave Upside in the Valuation

Aramark (ARMK) has quietly outperformed the broader market over the past 3 years, and that steady climb is getting harder for investors to ignore as its core food and facilities business scales.

See our latest analysis for Aramark.

Over the past year Aramark’s share price return has been modest, but its roughly 31 percent three year total shareholder return shows that steady execution and easing risk concerns have been rewarded over time.

If Aramark’s measured momentum has you thinking about what else is quietly compounding, now is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With revenue and earnings still growing and the stock trading below consensus targets despite a negative intrinsic value signal, investors face a key question: is Aramark undervalued or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 14.9% Undervalued

With Aramark last closing at $37.97 against a narrative fair value near $44.60, the spread points to meaningful upside if assumptions hold.

Significant investments in technology and AI for dynamic menu planning, supply chain efficiency, and contract management are driving measurable margin expansion, with AOI increasing 60 bps year over year, and expected to continue boosting net margins and profitability over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady contract wins, rising margins, and a leaner share count combine into that upside case? The narrative leans on ambitious growth, higher profitability, and a richer future earnings multiple, but the exact mix of assumptions might surprise you. Want to see the full financial roadmap behind that valuation gap?

Result: Fair Value of $44.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent labor cost pressures and ongoing contract timing delays could quickly erode margin gains and undermine the carefully staged ramp in earnings for FY26.

Find out about the key risks to this Aramark narrative.

Another View: Rich On Earnings

That 14.9 percent upside from the narrative fair value sits awkwardly against Aramark’s current earnings valuation. On a price to earnings ratio of about 30.6 times, the stock trades well above the Hospitality industry near 23.4 times and a fair ratio closer to 24.3 times, which implies the market already prices in a lot of future progress. If sentiment cools before earnings catch up, how comfortable are you holding that multiple risk?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Aramark Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can quickly craft a custom viewpoint yourself: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Aramark research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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