Udemy, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 400%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Udemy, Inc. (NASDAQ:UDMY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.4% to US$7.27 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$200m were what the analysts expected, Udemy surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.04 per share, an impressive 400% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Udemy's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$790.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 95% to US$0.011. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$786.9m and losses of US$0.029 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Udemy'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very promising decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

View our latest analysis for Udemy

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$10.16, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Udemy analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Udemy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Udemy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Udemy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Udemy Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.