Is Navan’s Recent Share Rebound Justified by Its Cash Flow and Sales Valuation?

• Wondering if Navan at around $15.90 is a bargain in disguise or a value trap? This article will walk you through what the numbers actually say about the stock.
• Over the last week Navan is up 8.6%, adding to a 6.3% gain over the past month, even though the shares are still down 20.5% year to date. This hints that sentiment might be shifting after a tough start.
• That change in mood has come alongside a steady stream of updates around Navan's travel and expense platform, including product enhancements and new enterprise customer wins that suggest the business is still pushing for scale. At the same time, broader conversations about corporate travel budgets and fintech competition have kept risk firmly on investors' radar.
• Right now Navan scores just 1 out of 6 on our valuation checks. We will dig into what that means across different valuation methods, and then look at a way to think about fair value that ties all of those signals together.

Navan scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Navan Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those dollars back to the present. For Navan, this uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework, focusing on what cash might ultimately be available to shareholders.

Right now, Navan is burning cash, with last twelve months Free Cash Flow at roughly $10.25 million in the red. Analysts expect that to deepen to about $24.45 million of negative FCF in 2026 and $27.88 million in 2027, before the business is projected to swing into positive territory, reaching around $18.48 million by 2028 and $80.75 million by 2029. Simply Wall St then extrapolates that growth further out, with FCF modeled to climb to about $118.86 million by 2030.

When all of those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $11.02 per share, compared with a market price of about $15.90. That suggests Navan is trading around 44.3% above this cash flow-based estimate of intrinsic value.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Navan may be overvalued by 44.3%. Discover 898 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Navan.

Approach 2: Navan Price vs Sales

For companies that are not yet consistently profitable, the Price to Sales ratio is often the cleanest way to compare valuation, because it focuses on how much investors are paying for each dollar of revenue rather than earnings that may still be negative or volatile.

In general, the higher a company’s expected growth and the lower its perceived risk, the more investors are willing to pay in terms of a higher Price to Sales multiple. Conversely, slower growth or higher uncertainty typically justifies a lower multiple, even within the same sector.

Navan currently trades on a Price to Sales ratio of about 6.02x, which is well above the Hospitality industry average of roughly 1.67x and also ahead of its closer peer group at around 2.28x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio metric estimates what a more tailored Price to Sales multiple should be, based on factors like Navan’s revenue growth outlook, profitability profile, risk, industry positioning and market cap. This makes it more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison, which can ignore important differences in quality and trajectory. With the Fair Ratio coming in materially lower than Navan’s current 6.02x, the shares screen as expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1458 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Navan Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you describe the story you believe about Navan and then connect that story directly to the numbers, such as your assumptions for fair value, future revenue growth, earnings and profit margins. A Narrative links three pieces together: the company’s story, a financial forecast that flows from that story, and a resulting fair value estimate, so you can see how your view of the business translates into a price you would be willing to pay. Narratives are available on Simply Wall St’s Community page and are already used by millions of investors as an easy and accessible way to turn opinions into structured, comparable forecasts. They help you think about potential buy or sell decisions by comparing your Fair Value with the current market Price, and they update dynamically as new information, like earnings results or major news, is released. For example, one Navan Narrative might assume rapid revenue growth and a premium valuation, while another assumes slower expansion and a discount, leading to very different fair values and perspectives.

Do you think there's more to the story for Navan? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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