Expedia Group (EXPE): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback and 12-Month Gains

Expedia Group (EXPE) shares have seen some swings recently, with the stock down about 3% over the past month but up 29% compared to a year ago. Investors are paying close attention to what is next for the company’s travel platform.

See our latest analysis for Expedia Group.

Expedia Group’s recent stock dip comes after a strong 12 months, with a 1-year total shareholder return of nearly 30% reflecting ongoing momentum even as the last month saw mild profit-taking. While the share price is off slightly in the past week, the bigger picture tells a story of robust, long-term gains that many investors are watching closely for sustained growth or shifts in sentiment.

If you want to broaden your outlook beyond travel stocks, now is the perfect time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But after a year of strong performance and a recent pullback, the real question for investors is whether Expedia Group shares are currently undervalued or if the market has already factored in future growth expectations.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.6% Undervalued

With Expedia Group’s fair value estimate at $227, about 6% higher than its recent close, the narrative points to meaningful upside while also leaving room for debate. Investors are dissecting whether recent growth momentum and technology initiatives are truly setting the stage for a higher valuation in this dynamic sector.

Ongoing shift in consumer preference toward digital and mobile channels, paired with increased adoption of AI-powered search and personalization on Expedia's platforms, is driving higher conversion rates and improved retention. This should support sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. Unified global technology platform and greater automation (including AI-powered developer tools and personalized insurance products) are already producing faster feature delivery, improved customer experience, and reduced operating costs. These factors are expected to further expand EBITDA margins and benefit earnings over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the numbers fueling this outlook? The forecast leans on a powerful combination: accelerating digital adoption, smarter technology, and a bold roadmap for revenue and margins. Discover which hidden drivers the narrative expects to deliver that extra upside, and what might make or break the fair value target.

Result: Fair Value of $227 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued softness in key U.S. travel segments or increased competition from alternative platforms could put Expedia Group’s growth outlook at risk.

Find out about the key risks to this Expedia Group narrative.

Build Your Own Expedia Group Narrative

If you want your own perspective or think there's more to the story, you can dive into the data and shape a narrative yourself in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Expedia Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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