Chuy's Holdings (NasdaqGS:CHUY) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CHUY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CHUY ($22.5) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($11.85)

CHUY fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

CHUY Stock Overview

Chuy's Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants under the Chuy’s name in the United States.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (16.7x) is below the Hospitality industry average (17.7x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.69% per year

Earnings have grown 1.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for CHUY from our risk checks.

Chuy's Holdings Competitors

El Pollo Loco Holdings

NasdaqGS:LOCO

US$356.0m

Ruth's Hospitality Group

NasdaqGS:RUTH

US$641.3m

Denny's

NasdaqCM:DENN

US$615.3m

Nathan's Famous

NasdaqGS:NATH

US$237.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Chuy's Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$22.50
52 Week High	US$34.93
52 Week Low	US$18.64
Beta	1.77
1 Month Change	10.19%
3 Month Change	-2.05%
1 Year Change	-28.89%
3 Year Change	-9.93%
5 Year Change	9.22%
Change since IPO	49.40%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 06

Chuy's Holdings Inc.: So Much Potential Turning To Dust

CHUY’s is far from a sexy story. It’s a restaurant chain, with weak earnings growth, founded 40 years ago, that appears unable to breakout beyond a few U.S. regions. Its restaurants, however, are another story. They are fun and exciting and offer excellent food. Shift in strategy is required for the firm to achieve the substantial potential its restaurants clearly demonstrate. Nevertheless, CHUY is undervalued, as our DCF model generates a fair value of $40/share. Therefore, we’ve a Buy Rating on the stock.

Shareholder Returns

	CHUY	US Hospitality	US Market
7D	-3.0%	2.8%	1.3%
1Y	-28.9%	-17.2%	-11.7%

Return vs Industry: CHUY underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -17.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CHUY underperformed the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CHUY's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CHUY volatility
CHUY Average Weekly Movement	7.7%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	8.7%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: CHUY is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CHUY's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1982	6,700	Steve Hislop	https://www.chuys.com

Chuy's Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants under the Chuy’s name in the United States. As of December 26, 2021, it operated 96 restaurants in 17 states, including the Southeastern and Midwestern United States. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Chuy's Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Chuy's Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CHUY fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$424.03m
Earnings (TTM)	US$25.38m
Revenue (TTM)	US$412.04m

16.7x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Is CHUY overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CHUY income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$412.04m
Cost of Revenue	US$321.88m
Gross Profit	US$90.16m
Other Expenses	US$64.78m
Earnings	US$25.38m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 26, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.35
Gross Margin	21.88%
Net Profit Margin	6.16%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did CHUY perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CHUY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHUY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CHUY. This is calculated by dividing CHUY's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CHUY's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$424.03m

CHUY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.8x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CHUY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CHUY PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CHUY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.8x
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings	13.9x	23.0%	US$356.0m
RUTH Ruth's Hospitality Group	15.5x	18.8%	US$641.3m
DENN Denny's	6.1x	-43.5%	US$615.3m
NATH Nathan's Famous	15.8x	n/a	US$237.2m
CHUY Chuy's Holdings	16.7x	11.7%	US$424.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CHUY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the peer average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CHUY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CHUY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (17.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHUY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHUY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.7x
Fair PE Ratio	15.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CHUY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHUY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CHUY ($22.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($11.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHUY is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Chuy's Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CHUY's forecast earnings growth (11.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CHUY's earnings (11.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CHUY's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CHUY's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CHUY's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CHUY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Chuy's Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

1.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CHUY has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CHUY's current net profit margins (6.2%) are lower than last year (6.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CHUY's earnings have grown by 1.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CHUY's earnings growth over the past year (11.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (1.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CHUY earnings growth over the past year (11.7%) underperformed the Hospitality industry 52.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: CHUY's Return on Equity (9.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Chuy's Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CHUY's short term assets ($107.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($43.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: CHUY's short term assets ($107.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($189.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CHUY is debt free.

Reducing Debt: CHUY had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: CHUY has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: CHUY has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Chuy's Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CHUY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CHUY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CHUY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CHUY's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CHUY has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Steve Hislop (62 yo)

15.08yrs

Tenure

US$1,911,341

Compensation

Mr. Steven J. Hislop, also known as Steve, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Chuy's Holdings, Inc. since July 2007. Mr. Hislop served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Sam...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Steve's total compensation ($USD1.91M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.61M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Steve's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CHUY's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CHUY's board of directors are considered experienced (9.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/26
Annual Earnings	2021/12/26