Stock Analysis

Earnings grew faster than the respectable 37% return delivered to Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) shareholders over the last year

Published
NasdaqGS:CAKE

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) share price is up 33% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 24% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 18% in three years.

While the stock has fallen 7.6% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year Cheesecake Factory grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 54%. This EPS growth is significantly higher than the 33% increase in the share price. So it seems like the market has cooled on Cheesecake Factory, despite the growth. Interesting.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:CAKE Earnings Per Share Growth December 24th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Cheesecake Factory has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Cheesecake Factory's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Cheesecake Factory's TSR for the last 1 year was 37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Cheesecake Factory has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 37% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 6% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Cheesecake Factory , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.