The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Casey's General Stores Carry?
As you can see below, Casey's General Stores had US$1.35b of debt, at April 2021, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$336.5m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.01b.
A Look At Casey's General Stores' Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Casey's General Stores had liabilities of US$612.7m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.91b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$336.5m as well as receivables valued at US$89.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$2.10b.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Casey's General Stores has a market capitalization of US$7.15b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Casey's General Stores's net debt is only 1.3 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 10.6 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also positive, Casey's General Stores grew its EBIT by 25% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Casey's General Stores can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Casey's General Stores's free cash flow amounted to 47% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Happily, Casey's General Stores's impressive EBIT growth rate implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its interest cover also supports that impression! All these things considered, it appears that Casey's General Stores can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Casey's General Stores you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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