Did Changing Sentiment Drive Tapestry’s (NYSE:TPR) Share Price Down By 35%?

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market – but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Tapestry, Inc. (NYSE:TPR) share price slid 35% over twelve months. That’s well bellow the market return of 1.4%. At least the damage isn’t so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 14% in that time. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 2.1%.

See our latest analysis for Tapestry

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Even though the Tapestry share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped. It’s fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it’s well worth checking out some other metrics, too.

Tapestry managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since we can’t easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.

You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).

NYSE:TPR Income Statement, March 12th 2019
NYSE:TPR Income Statement, March 12th 2019

Tapestry is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Tapestry stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Tapestry, it has a TSR of -33% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Tapestry had a tough year, with a total loss of 33% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 1.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4.0% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before spending more time on Tapestry it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.