Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 10%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 7.0% to hit US$1.1b. Tri Pointe Homes reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.18, which was a notable 10% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tri Pointe Homes after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Tri Pointe Homes

Taking into account the latest results, Tri Pointe Homes' seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$4.46b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.8% to US$4.60 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.95 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$48.40, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Tri Pointe Homes' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tri Pointe Homes, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$53.00 and the most bearish at US$44.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tri Pointe Homes' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Tri Pointe Homes' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Tri Pointe Homes. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$48.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Tri Pointe Homes going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Tri Pointe Homes (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.