Is It Time To Consider Buying Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC)?

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. The recent jump in the share price has meant that the company is trading at close to its 52-week high. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Taylor Morrison Home’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Taylor Morrison Home

What Is Taylor Morrison Home Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 18% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Taylor Morrison Home today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $70.57, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Taylor Morrison Home’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Taylor Morrison Home?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -3.5% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Taylor Morrison Home. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, TMHC appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on TMHC for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on TMHC should the price fluctuate below its true value.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Taylor Morrison Home.

If you are no longer interested in Taylor Morrison Home, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.