Earnings Beat: PVH Corp. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

There's been a major selloff in PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) shares in the week since it released its yearly report, with the stock down 21% to US$109. Revenues were US$9.2b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$10.76 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for PVH

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering PVH, is for revenues of US$8.63b in 2025. This implies a discernible 6.4% reduction in PVH's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.6% to US$11.42. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.01 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$132, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on PVH, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$165 and the most bearish at US$103 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 6.4% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect PVH to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PVH's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple PVH analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether PVH's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.