We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Meritage Homes Valuation

Is MTH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTH?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MTH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.1x
PEG Ratio-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home
3.2x-33.2%US$3.3b
KBH KB Home
3.5x-21.5%US$2.7b
SKY Skyline Champion
7.3x-33.9%US$3.0b
IBP Installed Building Products
13.5x-1.0%US$2.5b
MTH Meritage Homes
3.3x-24.0%US$3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-6.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.3x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (6.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.3x
Fair PE Ratio5.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MTH's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MTH's fair value for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$86.65
US$101.50
+17.1%
16.6%US$140.00US$87.00n/a8
Nov ’23US$76.78
US$100.88
+31.4%
15.8%US$136.00US$87.00n/a8
Oct ’23US$70.27
US$109.25
+55.5%
17.5%US$145.00US$87.00n/a8
Sep ’23US$77.40
US$108.13
+39.7%
19.1%US$145.00US$78.00n/a8
Aug ’23US$88.11
US$107.25
+21.7%
19.7%US$145.00US$78.00n/a8
Jul ’23US$77.19
US$102.63
+33.0%
25.5%US$144.00US$65.00n/a8
Jun ’23US$84.44
US$119.25
+41.2%
23.7%US$164.00US$90.00n/a8
May ’23US$82.55
US$116.22
+40.8%
24.2%US$164.00US$87.00n/a9
Apr ’23US$80.18
US$133.38
+66.3%
16.6%US$165.00US$108.00n/a8
Mar ’23US$100.10
US$136.56
+36.4%
14.7%US$165.00US$108.00n/a9
Feb ’23US$100.11
US$136.56
+36.4%
14.7%US$165.00US$108.00n/a9
Jan ’23US$122.06
US$138.13
+13.2%
16.8%US$190.00US$120.00n/a8
Dec ’22US$112.38
US$138.13
+22.9%
16.8%US$190.00US$120.00US$87.058
Nov ’22US$108.16
US$136.50
+26.2%
16.3%US$190.00US$120.00US$76.788
Oct ’22US$97.33
US$135.00
+38.7%
18.1%US$190.00US$116.00US$70.278
Sep ’22US$113.93
US$135.00
+18.5%
18.1%US$190.00US$116.00US$77.408
Aug ’22US$108.58
US$127.00
+17.0%
21.1%US$190.00US$90.00US$88.118
Jul ’22US$96.51
US$116.50
+20.7%
14.5%US$147.00US$90.00US$77.198
Jun ’22US$107.01
US$117.38
+9.7%
14.2%US$147.00US$90.00US$84.448
May ’22US$106.39
US$114.00
+7.2%
13.7%US$147.00US$90.00US$82.559
Apr ’22US$94.30
US$104.88
+11.2%
14.9%US$141.00US$90.00US$80.188
Mar ’22US$84.67
US$106.88
+26.2%
13.6%US$141.00US$91.00US$100.108
Feb ’22US$82.70
US$108.86
+31.6%
14.7%US$141.00US$91.00US$100.117
Jan ’22US$82.82
US$124.88
+50.8%
9.7%US$140.00US$106.00US$122.068
Dec ’21US$88.83
US$124.88
+40.6%
9.7%US$140.00US$106.00US$112.388

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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