We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Cavco Industries Valuation

Is CVCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVCO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CVCO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.3x
PEG Ratio-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CVCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CVCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.1x
MDC M.D.C. Holdings
3.6x-46.6%US$2.3b
LGIH LGI Homes
5.6x-16.5%US$2.3b
CCS Century Communities
2.5x-22.0%US$1.5b
IBP Installed Building Products
12.6x-1.0%US$2.3b
CVCO Cavco Industries
7.3x-14.8%US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-5.6%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (6.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.3x
Fair PE Ratio6.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CVCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CVCO ($219.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($675.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVCO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$219.87
US$341.67
+55.4%
11.5%US$385.00US$290.00n/a3
Nov ’23US$230.01
US$373.33
+62.3%
7.4%US$400.00US$335.00n/a3
Oct ’23US$205.76
US$373.33
+81.4%
7.4%US$400.00US$335.00n/a3
Sep ’23US$224.18
US$373.33
+66.5%
7.4%US$400.00US$335.00n/a3
Aug ’23US$262.10
US$339.00
+29.3%
8.6%US$380.00US$315.00n/a3
Jul ’23US$201.77
US$339.00
+68.0%
8.6%US$380.00US$315.00n/a3
Jun ’23US$215.88
US$339.00
+57.0%
8.6%US$380.00US$315.00n/a3
May ’23US$236.25
US$358.33
+51.7%
12.5%US$420.00US$315.00n/a3
Apr ’23US$243.84
US$387.00
+58.7%
13.2%US$426.00US$315.00n/a3
Mar ’23US$271.18
US$387.00
+42.7%
13.2%US$426.00US$315.00n/a3
Feb ’23US$270.20
US$345.67
+27.9%
18.7%US$402.00US$255.00n/a3
Jan ’23US$317.65
US$345.67
+8.8%
18.7%US$402.00US$255.00n/a3
Dec ’22US$302.88
US$345.67
+14.1%
18.7%US$402.00US$255.00n/a3
Nov ’22US$244.13
US$278.33
+14.0%
12.3%US$305.00US$230.00US$230.013
Oct ’22US$242.31
US$278.33
+14.9%
12.3%US$305.00US$230.00US$205.763
Sep ’22US$255.12
US$278.33
+9.1%
12.3%US$305.00US$230.00US$224.183
Aug ’22US$235.00
US$246.67
+5.0%
15.0%US$280.00US$195.00US$262.103
Jul ’22US$230.42
US$242.00
+5.0%
13.7%US$266.00US$195.00US$201.773
Jun ’22US$225.26
US$242.00
+7.4%
13.7%US$266.00US$195.00US$215.883
May ’22US$209.43
US$234.00
+11.7%
11.8%US$257.00US$195.00US$236.253
Apr ’22US$232.41
US$234.00
+0.7%
11.8%US$257.00US$195.00US$243.843
Mar ’22US$216.48
US$234.00
+8.1%
11.8%US$257.00US$195.00US$271.183
Feb ’22US$194.00
US$234.00
+20.6%
11.8%US$257.00US$195.00US$270.203
Jan ’22US$175.45
US$221.33
+26.2%
8.4%US$235.00US$195.00US$317.653
Dec ’21US$187.19
US$221.33
+18.2%
8.4%US$235.00US$195.00US$302.883
Nov ’21US$172.14
US$216.00
+25.5%
7.6%US$235.00US$195.00US$244.133

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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