Is There Now An Opportunity In Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH)?

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth of 15% on the NYSE over the last few months. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Meritage Homes’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Meritage Homes

What's The Opportunity In Meritage Homes?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 11.19% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Meritage Homes today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $143.55, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Meritage Homes’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Meritage Homes look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Meritage Homes, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -14%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, MTH appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MTH for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on MTH should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Meritage Homes and you'll want to know about it.

If you are no longer interested in Meritage Homes, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.