M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:MDC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.7b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

M.D.C. Holdings Dividends and Buybacks

Dividend criteria checks 5/6

M.D.C. Holdings is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 3.49% that is well covered by earnings.

Key information

3.5%

Dividend yield

-0.4%

Buyback Yield

Total Shareholder Yield3.1%
Future Dividend Yield3.7%
Dividend Growth12.2%
Next dividend pay daten/a
Ex dividend daten/a
Dividend per sharen/a
Payout ratio40%

Recent dividend and buyback updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jan 18

M.D.C. Sells To Sekisui At An Attractive Price; Further Upside Is Unlikely

Summary M.D.C. Holdings shares rallied 18% after the acquisition announcement by Sekisui, nearing the purchase price. Sekisui aims to achieve its goal of building 10,000 homes in the US by 2025 with the acquisition of MDC. It is unlikely for the deal to be blocked due to low market share and no antitrust or foreign investment concerns. At 12x earnings and 1.4x book value, no other bidders are likely to emerge. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jan 03

Earnings Working Against M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:MDC) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.4x M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) may be sending bullish signals at...
Analysis Article • Dec 18

We Think M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Nov 18

Returns On Capital At M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have Hit The Brakes

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 17

M.D.C. Holdings: Navigating Through A Tough Housing Market

Summary Home builder M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. stock has risen over 35% so far in 2023 despite challenges in the housing sector. Earnings and revenues are projected to fall significantly in FY2023, and there is or has been some substantial insider selling in the stock this year. However, the company has a strong balance sheet and also pays a five percent dividend yield. Buy, Sell, or Hold?  An analysis of M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Nov 03

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...
Analysis Article • Sep 22

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:MDC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 24% Below Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for M.D.C. Holdings is US$31.53 based on Dividend Discount Model M.D.C. Holdings...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 06

M.D.C. Holdings: Awaiting Q3 Results To Validate If Earnings Normalization Phase Has Started

Summary I maintain a hold rating for MDC as I await 3Q23 results to confirm the start of the earnings normalization phase. 2Q23 earnings exceeded expectations, with a 54% growth in orders and improved pricing trends. It is important to remember that further increases in mortgage rates will certainly impact the earnings trajectory of the business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Sep 05

We Think M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Aug 01

Upgrade: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Increase To Their M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Forecasts

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...
Analysis Article • Jul 28

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

While M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the NYSE...
Analysis Article • Jul 13

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 09

M.D.C. Holdings: Not The Best Financially But Has A Margin Of Safety

Summary MDC is a cyclical company as its performance is tied to US Housing Starts, where there was no growth in the long-term annual average over the past 70 years. MDC had hardly any revenue growth over the past 18 years and should be valued based on its cyclical Earnings Power Value. A valuation of MDC on such a basis showed that there are margins of safety. But I have concerns about MDC financial strengths. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jun 05

Does M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Seeking Alpha • May 26

M.D.C. Holdings: Trends Are Turning, But Better To Wait And See

Summary Despite initial concerns, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. experienced a smaller drop in orders than anticipated, with a notable improvement in market conditions during Q1 2023. Cancellation rates also showed significant improvement. Moving forward, investors should monitor M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s efforts to reduce cycle times, as well as the potential for increased gross margins. Given the need for more information to confirm the trend aligns with assumptions, a hold rating is recommended for M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. stock until sufficient data becomes available. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Apr 21

M.D.C. Holdings' (NYSE:MDC) Dividend Will Be $0.50

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on the 24th of May...
Analysis Article • Apr 14

When Should You Buy M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...
Analysis Article • Mar 30

Returns on Capital Paint A Bright Future For M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Analysis Article • Mar 07

Does M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 08

M.D.C. Holdings: Near-Term Concerns May Weigh On Share Price Performance

Summary Guidance for 1Q23 includes closings of 1,500 to 1,600 and ASPs of $550 to $560K with a gross margin of 18-19%. Orders dropped in 4Q22, but there was a return to order in January and an improvement is expected in 1Q23. I have near-term concerns about performance due to a weak sales forecast, declining margins, and uncertain demand and interest rate trends. Description I think M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) is entering the very early stage of an up-cycle, which I believe investors seem to think of as well given the share price reaction. However, I have my concerns on the near-term performance of MDC, especially given a weak order guide, declining gross margins, uncertain interest rate environment, and yet-to-be confirmed demand trends. On this backdrop, valuation has already increased to price in an up-cycle movement, which I think an investment today carries much more risk than pre-earnings. In my opinion, if this were to be a true up-cycle, there would be opportunities to make money out of it, there is no need to take additional risk to get exposure today. As such, my recommendation would be to wait out a couple of quarters, at least until we see a more stabilize demand trend. 4Q22 Review Several key points emerged during the earnings call. To begin, at the mid-point, MDC expects a decline in closings of 31% y/y and a decline in gross margins to 18.5% for 1Q23. With regards to demand trends, demand patterns improved in January as a result of MDC's increased market aggression following the completion of its higher-margin backlog. In addition, the majority of the company's 4Q gross orders (74%) were spec, as such MDC plans to keep expanding its spec construction to better meet the needs of modern buyers. On the pricing side of things, discounts for 4Q orders rose by about 4ppts q/q to around 12%, while order ASPs fell by about 6% q/q and 1% y/y on a gross order basis. If we extrapolate these results literally into FY23/24, we could very well see a downward trend in earnings. Order book Orders dropped 94% in 4Q22 due to a decrease in absorption, while average community size increased 13%. An important metric to keep an eye on is the 4Q22 cancellation rate, which hit 87%, up from 81% in 3Q22 and 20% in 4Q21. To combat this, MDC has responded by increasing the amount of the deposit it requires from customers interested in purchasing a built-to-order home. On the bright side, management noted a return to order in January, and this trend is only expected to further improve in 1Q23. This is likely because MDC has become more competitive in the market due to the anticipated Spring selling season. Additionally, as 74% of its 4th quarter orders were for spec construction, management expects to increase their spec constructions to better cater to current buyer preferences. Impairments The $93 million recorded in 4Q22 land impairments is the highest quarterly amount recorded since Q4 of 2008, and is a significant increase from the $28 million recorded in 3Q22. Impairments affected ten communities in MDC's West region and six communities in the Mountain region, most of which were already open for sales with a few that MDC had planned openings in 1Q23. Although I don't find this particularly concerning at the moment, I do think it's something we should keep an eye on in the future in case it's a precursor to a more serious threat. Guidance
Seeking Alpha • Jan 30

M.D.C. Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

M.D.C. (NYSE:MDC) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, January 31, before market open. The consensus EPS estimate is $1.52 and the consensus revenue estimate is $1.31B (-8.4% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, MDC has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 75% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 5 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 2 downward.
Analysis Article • Jan 28

M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.50

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) will pay a dividend of $0.50 on the 22nd of February. The dividend yield will be...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 24

M.D.C. Holdings declares $0.50 dividend

M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 5.45% Payable Feb. 22; for shareholders of record Feb. 8; ex-div Feb. 7. See MDC Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Analysis Article • Jan 13

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Shares Could Be 24% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights M.D.C. Holdings' estimated fair value is US$28.8 based on Dividend Discount Model Current share price of...
Analysis Article • Dec 29

Is M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Potentially Undervalued?

While M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a double-digit...
Analysis Article • Dec 13

Returns On Capital Are A Standout For M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...

Stability and Growth of Payments

Fetching dividends data

Stable Dividend: MDC's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MDC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Dividend Yield vs Market

M.D.C. Holdings Dividend Yield vs Market
How does MDC dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (MDC)3.5%
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.4%
Market Top 25% (US)4.2%
Industry Average (Consumer Durables)1.7%
Analyst forecast (MDC) (up to 3 years)3.7%

Notable Dividend: MDC's dividend (3.49%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.51%).

High Dividend: MDC's dividend (3.49%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.68%).

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.6%), MDC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (31.8%), MDC's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/04/19 19:11
End of Day Share Price 2024/04/19 00:00
Earnings2023/12/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
John LovalloBofA Global Research
Willy RandowCitigroup Inc