Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOV) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.9x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Hovnanian Enterprises' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Hovnanian Enterprises

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hovnanian Enterprises, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Hovnanian Enterprises' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.4%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 158% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Hovnanian Enterprises' P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance has exceeded its limits and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

What We Can Learn From Hovnanian Enterprises' P/E?

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Hovnanian Enterprises currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. When we see strong earnings with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low if recent medium-term earnings trends continue, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Hovnanian Enterprises that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Hovnanian Enterprises' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.