The D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) Share Price Has Gained 205%, So Why Not Pay It Some Attention?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 06, 2021
NYSE:DHI

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. Long term D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 205% in five years. It's also good to see the share price up 39% over the last quarter.

See our latest analysis for D.R. Horton

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, D.R. Horton managed to grow its earnings per share at 29% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 25% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:DHI Earnings Per Share Growth April 6th 2021

It is of course excellent to see how D.R. Horton has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at D.R. Horton's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, D.R. Horton's TSR for the last 5 years was 225%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that D.R. Horton shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 154% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 27% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - D.R. Horton has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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