TopBuild Corp.

NYSE:BLD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.0b

TopBuild Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

TopBuild is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.7% and 6.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 8.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 20.6% in 3 years.

Key information

6.7%

Earnings growth rate

8.81%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Durables earnings growth7.7%
Revenue growth rate6.3%
Future return on equity20.60%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 08

TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets

NYSE:BLD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore TopBuild's Fair Values from the Community and select yours It's been...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 03

BLD: Fair Deal Outlook Will Rely On QXO Merger And 2026 Guidance

Analysts have increased their price target on TopBuild by about $4, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that are now slightly different from prior estimates. What's in the News QXO, Inc.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 20

QXO And TopBuild Tie The Knot But Don't Earn The Upgrade

Summary QXO is acquiring TopBuild in a $16.89 billion cash and stock deal, accelerating its expansion strategy. The transaction offers TopBuild shareholders a strong exit price and positions QXO for significant scale and market leadership in building products distribution. Combined pro forma revenue will reach $18.1 billion with $2.1 billion EBITDA, excluding $300 million in expected annual synergies by 2030. Despite operational optimism, valuation remains fair, justifying a continued "Hold" rating for both QXO and BLD. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 18

BLD: Ongoing Buybacks And 2026 Earnings Outlook Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on TopBuild from about $498 to roughly $475. They cited updated views on fair value, a slightly different discount rate, modestly adjusted revenue growth expectations, a small change in projected profit margin, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Apr 04

BLD: Completed Buybacks And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts now set a slightly higher TopBuild price target of $498.07, reflecting small tweaks to assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiples. What's in the News TopBuild issued earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026, with expected sales of $5.925b to $6.225b and estimated net income of $446.0 million to $507.0 million (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Mar 20

BLD: Higher Future P/E And Completed Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have modestly trimmed their average price target on TopBuild to about $498 from roughly $499, reflecting slightly lower profit margin assumptions, along with a somewhat higher future P/E multiple and discount rate. What's in the News Issued earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026, with expected sales between $5,925.0m and $6,225.0m and estimated net income between $446.0m and $507.0m (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Mar 06

BLD: Higher Future P/E And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price target on TopBuild by about $4. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly lower revenue growth, reduced profit margins, a marginally higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

BLD: Updated P/E And Margin Assumptions Will Support Measured Fair Value

Analysts have raised their price target for TopBuild to $503.80 from $491.80, reflecting updated assumptions related to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Updated to $503.80 from $491.80, reflecting a modest upward revision in the assessed intrinsic value per share.
New Narrative • Feb 16

Acquisition Risks And Rising Leverage Will Pressure Margins And Future Earnings

Catalysts About TopBuild TopBuild provides insulation installation and specialty distribution services across residential, commercial and industrial construction end markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Feb 04

BLD: Share Repurchases And 2025 Outlook Will Maintain Measured Fair Value Expectations

Analysts have raised their price target on TopBuild by about $3, reflecting slightly adjusted views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Adjusted slightly from $488.60 to $491.80 per share.
Analysis Article • Jan 29

A Look At The Fair Value Of TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD)

Key Insights The projected fair value for TopBuild is US$408 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity TopBuild's...
Narrative Update • Jan 20

BLD: Share Repurchases And 2025 Outlook Will Support Steady Forward Expectations

Analysts have adjusted their price target on TopBuild slightly higher to $488.60 from $482.13, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, profit margins near 10.1% and a forward P/E of about 23x. What's in the News TopBuild completed a share repurchase tranche, buying 177,983 shares, or about 0.63% of shares, for US$65.53 million between July 1 and September 30, 2025, under its existing buyback plan (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 06

BLD: Share Repurchases And Updated 2025 Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts now hold their price target for TopBuild steady at about US$482, reflecting largely unchanged views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News TopBuild completed a share repurchase of 177,983 shares, or 0.63% of the company, for US$65.53 million between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, as part of its ongoing buyback program.
Analysis Article • Jan 05

TopBuild (NYSE:BLD) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Narrative Update • Dec 23

BLD: Share Repurchases And Higher Earnings Guidance Will Support Bullish Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on TopBuild by approximately 1 dollar per share, citing slightly faster expected revenue growth and a modestly higher future earnings multiple, which more than offsets a small reduction in anticipated profit margins. What's in the News TopBuild completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back 177,983 shares, or 0.63 percent of outstanding shares, for 65.53 million dollars between July 1 and September 30, 2025, under its existing buyback program (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 09

BLD: Future Buybacks And M&A Activity Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on TopBuild to approximately 481 dollars per share from prior levels, citing slightly higher expected revenue growth that more than offsets a marginally lower projected profit margin and a modestly reduced future valuation multiple. What's in the News Raised full year 2025 guidance, now expecting sales between 5,350 million dollars and 5,450 million dollars and estimated net income between 497 million dollars and 542 million dollars (corporate guidance).
Narrative Update • Nov 24

BLD: Share Repurchases And Higher Profit Margins Will Drive Upside

Narrative Update on TopBuild: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for TopBuild from $485.08 to $480.93. This adjustment is attributed to a moderation in projected revenue growth, even though higher profit margin expectations remain.
Narrative Update • Nov 06

BLD: Rising Earnings Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Share Momentum

Analysts have raised their price target for TopBuild from $475.41 to $485.08. They cite increased revenue growth and improved profit margins as key drivers behind the upward revision.
Narrative Update • Oct 23

Analysts Raise TopBuild Price Target as Revenue Outlook Improves and Acquisition Plans Advance

Analysts have raised TopBuild’s price target from $452.58 to $475.41, citing improved revenue growth outlook as the primary driver of their upward revision. What's in the News TopBuild will host an Analyst and Investor Day to discuss the company's business model, growth drivers, capital allocation, and long-term financial targets.
Narrative Update • Oct 08

Commercial And Industrial Expansion And Retrofit Demand Will Fuel Opportunity

Narrative Update on TopBuild: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for TopBuild from $446.83 to $452.58, citing slightly improved revenue growth projections despite marginal shifts in other key metrics. What's in the News TopBuild will host an Analyst/Investor Day to discuss its business model, growth drivers, capital allocation strategy, and long-term financial targets.
Analysis Article • Sep 09

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD)

Key Insights The projected fair value for TopBuild is US$420 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
Analysis Article • Aug 08

TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets

NYSE:BLD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore TopBuild's Fair Values from the Community and select yours It's been...
Narrative Update • Aug 07

Commercial And Industrial Expansion And Retrofit Demand Will Fuel Opportunity

With no changes observed in TopBuild's discount rate or future P/E, there is no substantive adjustment to valuation, and the consensus Analyst Price Target remains steady at $426.75. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 545,289 shares (1.9%) for $163.58 million under announced buyback plan.
Analysis Article • Aug 04

Should You Think About Buying TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) Now?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established TopBuild Corp. ( NYSE:BLD ). The company's stock led the NYSE...
Analysis Article • Jul 02

Is TopBuild (NYSE:BLD) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Analysis Article • Jun 16

Little Excitement Around TopBuild Corp.'s (NYSE:BLD) Earnings

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 26

TopBuild's Pop Doesn't Justify An Upgrade Just Yet

Summary TopBuild's Q4 2024 results showed solid revenue growth, driven by the Specialty Distribution segment, with earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations. Despite a 16% stock rise since July 2023, TopBuild underperformed the broader market, leading me to maintain a 'hold' rating. Management's 2025 guidance is lackluster, with anticipated revenue declines and uncertain demand, justifying a cautious investment approach. While TopBuild is attractively priced compared to peers, the stock isn't cheap enough to warrant a bullish outlook amid 2025 uncertainties. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 11

TopBuild: Warming Up To This Insulator Supplier

Summary TopBuild Corp. has tripled sales to over $5 billion in under a decade, driven by strong execution, solid positioning, and continued M&A efforts. Despite a challenging housing market, TopBuild's shares have benefited from valuation multiple inflation, though recent corrections increase appeal again. Shares now trade in my neutral zone, as the sound positioning and track record make me willing to buy shares on dips from here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:BLD - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,742N/AN/AN/A2
12/31/20276,32056574280013
12/31/20266,06551773777312
3/31/20265,622503704764N/A
12/31/20255,409522697756N/A
9/30/20255,236568791846N/A
6/30/20255,216594795853N/A
3/31/20255,284594687750N/A
12/31/20245,330623707776N/A
9/30/20245,304618698771N/A
6/30/20245,257617663733N/A
3/31/20245,208631790858N/A
12/31/20235,195614785849N/A
9/30/20235,173612680749N/A
6/30/20235,148598593664N/A
3/31/20235,105577503576N/A
12/31/20225,009556419496N/A
9/30/20224,808491360429N/A
6/30/20224,352432355419N/A
3/31/20223,912379341403N/A
12/31/20213,486324347403N/A
9/30/20213,144316356412N/A
6/30/20212,996291333382N/A
3/31/20212,808256337374N/A
12/31/20202,718247317358N/A
9/30/20202,659222306345N/A
6/30/20202,644207309354N/A
3/31/20202,658204270321N/A
12/31/20192,624191N/A272N/A
9/30/20192,601184N/A254N/A
6/30/20192,566171N/A222N/A
3/31/20192,512146N/A173N/A
12/31/20182,384135N/A167N/A
9/30/20182,246201N/A155N/A
6/30/20182,088190N/A129N/A
3/31/20181,956186N/A116N/A
12/31/20171,906158N/A113N/A
9/30/20171,84974N/A103N/A
6/30/20171,81368N/A96N/A
3/31/20171,77060N/A88N/A
12/31/20161,74373N/A77N/A
9/30/20161,725111N/A41N/A
6/30/20161,700103N/A71N/A
3/31/20161,67294N/A78N/A
12/31/20151,61779N/A56N/A
9/30/20151,58825N/A75N/A
6/30/20151,55815N/A46N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLD's forecast earnings growth (6.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: BLD's earnings (6.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BLD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BLD's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLD's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BLD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.6%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/11 09:44
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/08 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

TopBuild Corp. is covered by 18 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Reuben GarnerBenchmark Company
Daniel WangBerenberg
Rafe JadrosichBofA Global Research