TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders might have noticed that TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to US$304 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$5.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$20.29 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that TopBuild is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for TopBuild

Following last week's earnings report, TopBuild's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$5.34b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.0% to US$21.87. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$22.76 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$405, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on TopBuild's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic TopBuild analyst has a price target of US$470 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$310. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await TopBuild shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TopBuild's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than TopBuild.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TopBuild going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for TopBuild that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.