Vera Bradley, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Vera Bradley, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRA) shares plunged 25% in the week since its latest third-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$4.25. Revenues missed expectations, with revenue of US$81m falling 18% short of forecasts. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with Vera Bradley reporting a statutory loss of US$0.46 per share, where the analysts were expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vera Bradley

Following last week's earnings report, Vera Bradley's twin analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$398.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Vera Bradley is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$442.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 32% to US$6.50, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vera Bradley's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would also point out that the forecast 1.3% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 1.4% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Vera Bradley to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vera Bradley. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Vera Bradley's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.