Steven Madden (SHOO): Evaluating Undervaluation Claims After Recent Share Price Rebound

Steven Madden (SHOO) has seen some interesting movement in its stock over the past month, with shares down about 5% and making up ground over the past three months. Investors are watching recent shifts for clues about what comes next.

See our latest analysis for Steven Madden.

After a tough start to the year, Steven Madden has regained some momentum lately, as shown by its 27.04% share price return over the past three months. However, with a year-to-date share price return still in the red and a 1-year total shareholder return of -25.69%, the recent bounce suggests shifting market sentiment but leaves room for cautious optimism about longer-term trends.

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With shares trading below analyst price targets and a strong recent rebound, investors are left to wonder: Is Steven Madden currently undervalued, or has the market already priced in the company’s recovery prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.3% Undervalued

Steven Madden’s most-watched narrative currently prices the stock slightly above where shares last closed, reflecting nuanced optimism about growth and profitability drivers.

Vertical integration efforts and ongoing supply chain diversification away from China—with expectations for U.S. imports sourced from China to drop from 71% to 30% year-over-year—provide a pathway to improve gross margin stability and working capital management. This could support future earnings recovery once tariff disruptions stabilize.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why this narrative calls for a higher fair value? The calculation weaves together aggressive future growth rates with changing margins and a predicted shift in how profits are valued. Wondering what bold financial assumptions support that outlook? Dive in and uncover the critical drivers behind this new price target.

Result: Fair Value of $33.63 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing tariff uncertainty and challenging inventory management could quickly reverse recent optimism. This casts doubt on the durability of Steven Madden's recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Steven Madden narrative.

Another View: Looking at Valuation Multiples

While some models suggest Steven Madden is undervalued, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2x is notably higher than both the US Luxury industry average of 19.3x and the peer average of 18.9x. However, compared to its fair ratio of 30.6x, the market leaves room for movement in either direction. Does this premium signal risk, or could it present an overlooked opportunity if fundamentals improve?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Steven Madden Narrative

If you think the current story misses the mark or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, building your own outlook takes just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Steven Madden research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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