Is Rocky Brands (NASDAQ:RCKY) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Rocky Brands

What Is Rocky Brands's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Rocky Brands had US$213.9m of debt in September 2023, down from US$284.8m, one year before. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

How Strong Is Rocky Brands' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Rocky Brands had liabilities of US$89.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$226.3m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$4.24m as well as receivables valued at US$105.5m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$206.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$215.2m. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

While Rocky Brands's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.1) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 1.7, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Even worse, Rocky Brands saw its EBIT tank 24% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Rocky Brands's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Rocky Brands recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

To be frank both Rocky Brands's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Rocky Brands has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Rocky Brands (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.