While Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGS over the last few months, increasing to US$25.12 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$21.46. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Mattel's current trading price of US$22.08 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Mattel’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What's The Opportunity In Mattel?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 7.03x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.84x, which means if you buy Mattel today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe Mattel should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Mattel’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Mattel generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Mattel, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, MAT appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on MAT, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MAT for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on MAT should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 2 warning signs for Mattel and you'll want to know about them.
If you are no longer interested in Mattel, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Mattel, Inc., a children’s entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide.
The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.
|Analysis Area||Score (0-6)|
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Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.