We Think LGI Homes (NASDAQ:LGIH) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Our analysis indicates that LGIH is potentially undervalued!

How Much Debt Does LGI Homes Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, LGI Homes had US$1.16b of debt, up from US$583.7m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$42.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$1.11b.

How Healthy Is LGI Homes' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that LGI Homes had liabilities of US$94.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.26b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$42.0m and US$52.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.27b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since LGI Homes has a market capitalization of US$2.14b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

We'd say that LGI Homes's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.1), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 1k times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. We saw LGI Homes grow its EBIT by 4.7% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if LGI Homes can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, LGI Homes recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

LGI Homes's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that LGI Homes is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with LGI Homes , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.