Fossil Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of FOSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FOSL ($1.3) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($118.27)

Is FOSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FOSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FOSL ($1.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($118.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FOSL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FOSL?

Key metric: As FOSL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FOSL. This is calculated by dividing FOSL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FOSL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.06x
Sales	US$1.22b
Market Cap	US$69.68m

FOSL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-6.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FOSL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FOSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.6x
PLBY PLBY Group	1.4x	-11.6%	US$99.4m
TFRF.F Tefron	0.3x	n/a	US$93.6m
JRSH Jerash Holdings (US)	0.3x	13.0%	US$40.6m
VRA Vera Bradley	0.3x	1.4%	US$148.2m
FOSL Fossil Group	0.06x	n/a	US$69.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FOSL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FOSL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Luxury Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	0.8x	6.0%
FOSL Fossil Group	0.06x	n/a	US$69.68m
UFI Unifi	0.2x	8.5%	US$103.21m
VNCE Vince Holding	0.07x	3.1%	US$21.68m

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	0.8x	13.9%
FOSL Fossil Group	0.06x	n/a	US$69.68m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FOSL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the US Luxury industry average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FOSL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FOSL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.06x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FOSL's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.