Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

As you might know, Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.4% short of analyst estimates at US$1.8b, and statutory earnings of US$18.37 per share missed forecasts by 2.5%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Cavco Industries

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Cavco Industries are now predicting revenues of US$1.91b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 5.3% to US$20.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$22.46 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$407, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Cavco Industries' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Cavco Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$425 and the most bearish at US$382 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Cavco Industries' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cavco Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Cavco Industries is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$407, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cavco Industries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Cavco Industries analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Cavco Industries Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.