Earnings Miss: Waste Management, Inc. Missed EPS By 25% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE:WM) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.7% to US$198 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$6.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 25% to hit US$1.49 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 22 analysts covering Waste Management are now predicting revenues of US$26.5b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 32% to US$8.42. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.51 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Waste Management

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$247, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Waste Management at US$270 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$198. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Waste Management's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.7% over the past five years. Compare this to the 154 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Waste Management's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$247, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Waste Management going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Waste Management you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.